Mark Curtis at Nevada Caucus

"Candidates Stump Nevada"

Candidates rolled the dice one last time in a series of campaign stops across Nevada. By night fall, polls were set to open in less than 36 hours, in a city that never sleeps.

 

John Edwards held a "town hall" meeting in Henderson, just outside of Las Vegas, speaking mostly of economic issues on the day the Dow Jones dropped another 300 points, and concerns were raised again about a recession.

 

"I'm working for John Edwards because of his stance on the war, health care and women," said Preceint Captain Norma Price of Henderson.

 

Barack Obama held a "town hall" meeting at Rancho High School in Las Vegas, and the crowd sang Happy Birthday to his wife Michelle.

 

In a week that saw some nasty sniping between the Democrats, Obama spoke in a more conciliatory tone, urging a Democratic victory in November, no matter the nominee. "If you don't caucus for me (on Saturday), caucus for someone else. This is too important of an election to sit out." 

 

Obama was cheered by members of the Culinary Workers Union, who today won a huge court fight allowing them to Caucus at casinos on Saturday. The state Teacher's Union, which backs Sen. Hillary Clinton sued in federal court to stop the casino caucuses, but lost today.

 

 

People from around the nation, including the Bay Area, were pouring into help get out the vote. Claudia Bermudez, a well known politico from Alameda is here trying to help Republican Mitt Romney.  

 

She joined an enthusiastic crowd of an estimated one-thousand people at Brady Industries tonight.

She helping organize, get people out, and then will work as a poll observer Saturday.

 

"He's got a strong economic  background, and he has experience in both the public and private sector."   Bermudez noted Romney's tenure as Massachusetts Governor, head of the 1992 Salt Lake Olympics, as well as private business.

 

Other GOP candidates were in South Carolina tonight, which holds a Republican primary on Saturday.

 

Bill Clinton and daughter Chelsea, made a brief stop in Las Vegas before noon today, before heading to delegate rich California, to stump for Sen. Hillary Clinton, (D-NY).

 

People in Nevada tell me they are thrilled at all the media attention and public interest. For many years, Nevada Caucuses were largely ignored, but with a wide open race for nominations in both parties, every primary or caucus has potential meaning this year.

 

Join me for more Friday morning at 7:40 on KTVU when I talk with Tori Campbell, 'live' from Las Vegas!

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BREAKING NEWS: Major Court Decision in Nevada Caucuses

(Henderson, NV)

A U.S. District Court in Nevada, just dealt a blow to the campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton, (D-NY). Clinton's campaign, and the Nevada Teachers Union sued to stop Culinary Workers from caucusing this Saturday, at nine specially designated casino locations along the Las Vegas strip. Many of the culinary employees have to work Saturday, and this ruling allows them to work and vote. The Culinary Workers Union has a strong Latino and African-American membership, and has endorsed Sen. Barack Obama, (D-IL).  The Teacher's Union endorsed Sen. Clinton, and said the special voting arrangements for casino food workers amounted to a "special privlege." The federal court disagreed.

This could be crucial as the latest polls here have Clinton, Obama, and former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC), locked in a dead heat, heading into Saturday's Caucuses.

We'll discuss the impact of this, Friday morning at 7:40 on KTVU's "Mornings on Two," 'live' from Las Vegas!

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"Candidates Roll Dice in Nevada; Storm South Carolina"

Next stop for the Presidential candidates: Nevada and South Carolina!

Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards all have events over the next 3 days, before the Nevada Caucuses take place Saturday morning. Already another internal Democratic Party rift is underway. Arrangements have been made for the culinary workers union members to vote at 9 Caucus locations along the strip, during their workday Saturday. Their union backs Barack Obama. But the teacher's unions have objected, saying "special arrangements" are being made for one group but not others. The teacher's unions back Hillary Clinton.

Exit polling on Saturday, should tell us which group turned out in the largest numbers. Right now the polls are close: The Reno Gazette-Journal has it 32% Obama; 30% Clinton; 27% Edwards. Democrats focus next on South Carolina, January 26th Primary, while the GOP votes there THIS Saturday the 19th.








Meantime, its a "split personality" week for Republicans. They also hold Nevada Caucuses on Saturday, as well as their "solo" South Carolina Primary this Saturday. Consequently the GOP hopefuls are now gone from Nevada, swinging through South Carolina (and in some cases nearby Florida which votes on January 29).

The latest GOP Polls:

Nevada (Research 2000): McCain 22%; Giuliani 18%; Huckabee 16%; Romney 15%; Thompson 11%

South Carolina (RealClearPolitics): McCain 26%; Huckabee 23%; Romney 15%; Thompson 10%; Paul 5.4%; Giuliani 5.2%.

I'll be in Las Vegas starting Thursday, covering last minute events for Edwards, Obama and Clinton.

Please join me Friday on KTVU's "Mornings on Two" at 7:45 as I will be "live" from Las Vegas talking politics with Frank and Tori!

As always tell your friends about this blog: www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com

KGO-AM 810 Radio with Brian Copeland

KGO Radio

"Romney Wins Michigan; Nevada & South Carolina Loom Large"

 It's the year where EVERY primary matters!

 

Case in point: Michigan tonight! Mitt Romney had to win the state where his dad served as Governor, and he did. With two-thirds of the vote counted, former Gov. Romney (R-MA) had 39%; Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 30%; and former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) 16%.

 

So three primaries or caucuses on the GOP side, and THREE different winners! The "free-for all" is shaping up, especially if we see former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) and former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN) win some upcoming primaries, which they might. The GOP contest could soon be a "five-way" race.

 

The Democratic race remains a 3-person tug of war. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY); Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) and former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) remain the only three viable candidates left. But tonight's Michigan primary was strictly a "beauty contest" (which Clinton won), since the delegates will be selected later.

 

So Nevada is there next BIG test for both parties, with Caucuses on Saturday. Here's the funny part, in the nation's gambling capitol. ALL MAJOR POLLING organizations are "passing" on Nevada! I know, rich with irony. Many have cited the 'polling' disaster in New Hampshire, as a reason for skipping Nevada.

 

But deep, deep, deep in the caves of the Internet I found two polls:

 

"Reno Gazette-Journal" (DEM):  32% Obama; 30% Clinton; 27% Edwards.  So its CLOSE!

 

"Research 2000" (GOP):  McCain 22%; Giuliani 18%; Huckabee 16%; Romney 15%; Thompson 11%. Close here too!

 

Why does Nevada matter?  It's one of four key Western "toss-up" states! It could go either Democrat or Republican in November!

 

Now, on to the "race about Race!"  Much has been made this week about the remarks and counter-remarks about "race" between the Clinton and Obama campaigns. It got ugly at times! Tonight on the MSNBC debate from Las Vegas.

 

Tonight Sen. Clinton said, "We both have exuberant and sometimes uncontrollable supporters," likely referring to her own husband and former President, as well as former BET-TV founder Robert Johnson III. Both Johnson and President Clinton made caustic comments about Obama, that some critics found racially offensive.  Obama's campaign was also criticized for perpetuating story lines that fed the racially animosity. "They started saying things I would not say, " Obama said of his supporters and staff members.

 

Obama and Clinton both regretted the conflicts and promised to try and avoid them again, ironically on this the birthday of civil rights leader, Martin Luther King, Jr. Edwards, while not involved in the current political nastiness, nonetheless regretted it "having seen the pain, struggle and sacrifice up close," as a Southerner who grew up in the eight of the civil rights movement of the 1960's. 

 

Speaking of the South: GOP voters will cast ballots this Saturday January 19th in the South Carolina primary, but Democratic voters hold their primary next Saturday, January 26th.

 

Its just another oddity, in an already odd political year!

 

Footnote:  I attended today's 30th annual Martin Luther King Humanitarian Awards in Contra Costa County, and a number of the speakers mentioned the need to mend the Clinton-Obama racial rift. My good friend and classmate Rev. Charles Tinsley, was honored as the 2008 MLK Humanitarian of the Year. An honor well deserved for a man who is a true agent of change in this county. God Bless you Charles!

 

I'll be on KGO-AM 810 Radio tonight at 10pm PST, with Brian Copeland.  They stream "live" on the Internet, so listen in, no matter where you are.

 

I'll be heading to Las Vegas Thursday for the Nevada Caucuses. More to come!

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"Michigan Heats up for the GOP!"

Next stop on the campaign trail will be Michigan tomorrow, Tuesday, January 15th. A composite of seven key polls, shows its a tight race!

 

A Strategic Vision Poll has it McCain 29%; Romney 20%; Huckabee 18%; Undecided 9%.

 

American Research Group has McCain 34%; Romney 27%; Huckabee 15%; Undecided 6%.

 

Real Clear Politics has a composite of 7 different polls showing it is much, much closer:

 

Romney 27.0%; McCain 26.3% Huckabee 15.9%. Undecided are NOT listed and that is crucial.

 

If the news media learned one lesson from the New Hampshire polling, its that you must report the number of undecideds! Exit polling showed almost 20% of New Hampshire Democrats went to the polling place undecided!

 

Than number, in large part, helps to explain Hillary Clinton's huge comeback win, and why the pre-polling was so off!

 

I will travel to Nevada later this week for the GOP and Democratic Caucuses! Hopefully I will be checking in with Ronn Owens, on AM-810 KGO Radio from time to time!

 

Tell all your friends about the blog: www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com

"Bill Richardson Will Be Back!"

(San Francisco, CA)

"Richardson Out; Likely to Return!"

Someday you might say "you heard it here first!"

Gov. Bill Richardson, (D-NM) dropped out of the Presidential Primary sweepstakes today, but his name is not likely to fade from the headlines.

Richardson remains a prime Vice-Presidential running mate.

Here's why: Back in 1980, a guy named George H.W. Bush was placed on the GOP ticket with Ronald Reagan, largely because Bush had the "longest resume' in Washington, DC." It helped balance out any perceived shortcomings Reagan had on foreign policy. Bush was a Congressman, CIA Director, UN Ambassador and GOP Party Chairman.

Richardson, holds similar assets, having served in Congress, as UN Ambassador, as Energy Secretary and as an "ad-hoc" diplomat, as well as Governor. Plus he is from the "swing state" of New Mexico, which Gore won in 2000, but Bush '43' took back in 2004. New Mexico is was I call a "BLED" state...part Blue, Part Red...a toss-up! It's in play this year! Plus, Richardson is also Latino...appealing to a key voting block.

As for the other news of the day, John Kerry endorsing Barack Obama? ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzz! Endorsements mean little; they rarely have. Why didn't he do it before New Hampshire, a neighboring state to Massachusetts?

It's not a big deal. Big headline; little consequence>

"Weird Scenes from Inside the Campaign Trail!"

There are always oddballs on the campaign, from the "Hillary Haters" to The "Global Warming Snowman" to "Flip" Romney dressed in a dolphin costume!

With apologies to the Doors song of a similar name, here are some "Weird Scenes from Inside the Campaign Trail!"

Enjoy!

Post NH Primary Discussion On KGO Radio

KGO Radio

New Hampshire Presidential Primary TV Report 2

Mark Curtis On KGO Radio

KGO Radio

"Comebacks Rule in New Hampshire" -- Day #7

(Nashua, New Hampshire)

Let this be a lesson, that pollsters don't always get it right!

In a stunning comeback tonight Sen. Hillary Clinton, (D-NY) won the New Hampshire Primary, 39% to 37% over Sen. Barack Obama, (R-IL).

At least two prominent polls had Obama up 14 points, just yesterday. Oops!

"Over the past week I listened to you (New Hampshire voters), and in the procees, I found my own voice," said Clinton at her victory rally Tuesday night in Manchester. She may have been referring, in part, to a widely publicized incident Monday when she choked back tears. Critics saw it as a sign of weakness, while supporters saw her finally showing a human side that many felt she lacked. 

She also skipped using the word "change" to describe her campaign, after essentially co-opting the phrase from Obama and former Sen. John Edwards, (D-NC). For Clinton, a long time Washington insider, the idea just didn't ring true. Her husband, the former President, was widely criticized for an attack on the Obama campaign today, calling it a "fairytale."

The next key primaries for Democrats are Nevada on January 19 and South Carolinas on January 26. Clinton said, "We're going to take what we learned in New Hampshire. We are in it for the long haul."

On the Republican side, the comeback was just as dramatic, but not so sudden. A month ago, some polls had McCain down by 20 points. He surged back to the lead, mostly on the populist streak of independence that endeared him to this state, and a GOP primary he won in 2000.

"I am passed the age where I can claim the name kid, but tonight we sure showed them what a comeback is, " McCain said. He beat former Gov. Mitt Romney, (R-MA), 37% to 32%.

The next big test for Republicans is next Tuesday January 15, in Michigan. While McCain won there eight years ago, Romney's father George was a popular three-term Governor there in the 1960's.

"We celebrate one victory tonight and we leave for Michigan tomorrow for another, " said McCain. Romney vowed to fight on. Obama promised the same in his concession speech saying, "We know its a long road ahead."

Next stop for me is the Nevada Primary on January 19th.  Please check in to my blog for daily analysis of the entire campaign: www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com.

I'll be on "Mornings on 2" with Ross McGowan at 7:40 on Wednesday, 'live' from Manchester. Then tune in to Ronn Owens and me at 9:05 am on KGO-Radio-810AM.

Clinton Wells Up: 'This Is Very Personal'

"Let the Voting Begin!"

(Manchester, New Hampshire)

It's hardly a winter day as polls open in New Hampshire. Its sunny and the forecast high is 57 in Manchester. With competitive races in both parties, and huge voter interest, the great weather may just add to what could be a record voter turnout. As an added incentive, 40% of voters in the Granite State are Independents.

 

That voting block is crucial. In pre-voting day polling, more Republicans were inclined to vote for former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) than they were for for Sen. John McCain, (R-AZ). However, when you add in the Independents, McCain surges into the lead.

Sen. Barack Obama, (D-IL) is also benefiting from independents. At a rally Sunday he asked how many people were still undecided, I saw about 1/3rd of the crowd raise its hands. In other words, many went to see Obama, perhaps to see if he could convince them to vote for him.

Since both races could be very close, the Independents hold the key.

Both leading Democrats held raucus late-night rallies Monday night. After a couple of "flat" performances and turnouts, thousands filed into a hanger near the Manchester Airport, to see Sen. Hillary Clinton, (D-NY). She was joined by her husband Bill and daughter Chelsea. The crowd went wild, in some respects more for the former President, than the current Clinton White House seeker.

When Sen. Clinton talked about the qualities needed in the next President she started to respond, "I know what it will take...." and suddenly a man yelled in the then quiet crowd, "A woman!"  The audience erupted in raucus cheers!

As wild as her final rally was, she is still hard pressed to equal the entusiams of Barack Obama's rallies. He held the final event of the day, in the gym at Concord High School. Thousands packed the place, and they were anything but quiet.

Obama entered to the blaring sounds of James Brown's "Living in America." The building was shaking!  Obama spoke of his success in Iowa, which he was hoping to translate to a New Hampshire victory.

“We can come togther as Democrats, Independents and Republicans.Cast aside the same old polarizing politics of the past.”  The Illinois Senator noted that young people in Iowa voted in the same percentages as senior citizens. Historically in America, older folks turn out at the highest rate, teens and 20's at the lowest rate. If this new trend continues, Obama could ride the wave to the White House!

Polls close in New Hampshire at 8 Eastern time, 5 Pacific. Look for results shortly thereafter. I will be at the winner's rallies.

Join me with Ross McGowan on "Mornings on Two" tomorrow at 7:40am, and Ronn Ownes on KGO Radio-AM 810 at 9am.

For the latest from my political blog, go to www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com.