Obama's Future May Depend on Preacher

(Danville, California)

 

If people were looking for a reason not to like Sen. Barack Obama or a reason not to vote for him, they surely found it in Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
Obama's flame throwing pastor and his caustic language on race relations have really stirred up a hornet's nest. The fact that so many of the comments were aimed at the Clintons (heretofore huge allies to the black community), is downright bizarre.

 

But politics is a strange, unpredictable and in many cases unforgiving business. Obama likely came to Philadelphia today looking for some forgiveness and redemption, even though Rev. Wright spoke the angry words and not Obama.

 

That Obama and his campaign did not see this day coming, is just plain politically naive. If you run for office, especially president, someone is going to look in every closet and under every rug in your house. Back in 2000, George W. Bush's worst fear was probably "I hope no one finds out about my DUI in Maine." Two days before the vote, it was made public.

 

I just bet at some point in time, while sitting in a pew at church, Obama thought "I hope the press never finds out about what this preacher is saying!" Now I give him the benefit of the doubt, that he was probably not at some of the real controversial sermons. But it is his preacher, and people talk to each other about church, especially if it's stirring: "Wow, did you hear what Rev. Squawkbox said last Sunday?"  The Obama campaign should have known this was a time bomb, waiting to go off, and it now has.

 

Is the damage permanent? I doubt it. The "shelf life" of news stories in this country is about as long as for a loaf of bread. Last week we spoke of Eliot Spitzer. Next week we'll be saying Eliot who?

 

So how effective was Obama today? The first big test will be the Pennsylvania primary April 22. If he loses by a smiliar margin as he lost to Hillary Clinton in the "twin sister" state of Ohio, he can breathe a sigh of relief. But if there is enormous movement away from some of his key constituencies, then Hillary Clinton has a big opening among the uncommitted Super Delegates who may decide the race. Obama, despite all the talk of racial divisions, has won among white males this year on the Democratic side. Some of that is disdain for Clinton, but much of it is from Obama's charismatic appeal. He can really stir a crowd like no one else in this race, on either side of the aisle.

 

Today, he was different. He was serious, sober, measured and all business. I've been to several Obama speeches and have never seen him appear this contrite, if not downright worried. This was not a day for fiery rhetoric and the "call" and "response" of a black Baptist Church sermon. That he did it in Philadelphia was smart, especially uttering classic lines about "we the people in order to form a more perfect union..."

 

He reached back into his own unique story about having a white mother from Kansas and a black father from Kenya, and recycled maybe the best line of his campaign this year: "And for as long as I live, I will never forget that in no other country on Earth is my story even possible," Obama said.

 

He refused to abandon his friend Rev. Wright, just as he said he refused to abandon his white grandmother who said things he considered racially insensitive when he was a child. "These people are part of me and they are part of America, the country I love." But he did condemn Wright's remarks calling some of them "comments that are simply inexcusable." And he added that "they expressed a profoundly distorted view of America."

 

Will he survive this? Only the voters know that! Can he survive this? Sure, just as Bill Clinton survived  Gennifer Flowers's claims and George W. Bush survived the late DUI report. John McCain was recently lambasted for standing with, and being endorsed by an anti-gay minister in Texas. It was a hot story for a couple days, but has long since faded.

 

Timing helps too. It's better for Obama that the Rev. Wright surfaced now, instead of say October 15. So, we shall see. It will also be interesting to see how many times Obama attends the Rev. Wright's church, between now and election day!

 

I will be in Philadelphia covering the Pennsylvania primary in late April. Until then, keep tuning to www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.

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