(Danville, California)
Most polls continue to put Democrat Barack Obama in the lead in the Presidential race. However, the gap is closing. Polls that showed him leading John McCain by 12 to 15 points just a few weeks ago now show that lead all but gone. Why is that? Well, for starters, many of those polls were taken right after the dramatic and historic primary season ended. The euphoria over Obama's razor-thin win over Hillary Clinton and the fact that McCain had won his nomination three months earlier, meant that McCain was knocked out of the headlines for a good stretch.
Now that people have just two choices (Okay, I know Nader, Barr, McKinney, et. al., are hovering out there.), the polls may tighten further.
Here are some of the latest numbers:
POLL: Obama: McCain:
Newsweek 44 41
Quinnipiac 50 41
ABC/Washington Post 49 46
Real Clear Politics 47 43
The key here is the undecided vote. As many as 15 percent of voters have yet to make up their minds, so the election could swing either way. Also, most polls have a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. That could make these polls essentially dead even.
Bad News for McCain: An AOL poll shows that six percent of American homes have no "land line" phone. They rely on cell phones only. Most of those numbers are unlisted, making this mostly young, 18-to-30-year-old group unavailable for phone polling. As we saw in the primaries, this voting demographic heavily favors Obama.
Bad News for Obama: A variety of polls still indicate that 20 to 25 percent of Hillary Clinton supporters are planning to vote for McCain, or they will just simply stay home. Many are still angry, believing Obama took "skips in line" ahead of Hillary Clinton when it was "her turn" to be the nominee. These people are still mad six weeks later. They could be decisive.
Battleground states: There are eleven in all. It's a toss-up in eight right now: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire, Florida, Virginia, Nevada and New Mexico. Obama has wider margins in Wisconsin and Colorado. McCain has a leg up in Missouri.
The bottom line: This race is wide open! I have heard too many McCain backers ready to "throw in the towel." And I have heard too many Obama supporters talk of a certain victory. Neither group is right!
I am gearing up for the Democratic Convention in Denver and the Republican Convention in St. Paul. Until then, keep checking in at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.
Get the scoop on last night's hottest shows and the live music scene in your area - Check out TourTracker.com!
No comments:
Post a Comment