Democrats Debate Tonight; Nominee Date Predicted!

Tonight it's the Democrats turn. After a feisty GOP debate at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley last night, mostly with jabs between Romney and McCain, the stage is set for another battle!

For the Democrats, the choice is now down to two. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL). While they will likely jab and counter-punch, much like they did in the South Carolina debate, you might want to score this fight by the delegate count.

Democrats need 2,025 delegates the nomination.

Clinton has 256; Obama 181 and Edwards 64.

I did some math with the help of polls at www.RealClearPolitics.com to help assess what may happen on Super Tuesday, February 5th.


CLINTON LEADS or is tied, in the following states, with Delegate counts:
Alabama (60); Arizona (67); California (441); tied in Connecticut (60); Delaware (23); Kansas (41) Massachusetts (121); Minnesota (88) Missouri (88); New Jersey (127); New York, 281; Oklahoma (47); Tennessee (85).


OBAMA LEADS or is tied in: Colorado (71); tied in Connecticut (60); Georgia (103); Illinois (185);

So, Hillary Clinton leads in states with 1,499 delegates; Obama leads in states with 389 delegates today.

Keep in mind, Democratic delegates are handed out proportionally. There is no "winner take all" state. In total, 2,064 delegates are available on Super Tuesday.

So the question is: Will we have a Democratic nominee on "Super Tuesday?"

My prediction is NO! Hillary Clinton would have to win %85 of the delegates, just on Tuesday, to be the nominee. The scenarios for Obama is even more daunting!

When could we have a Democartic Nominee? Well on February 12th, Maryland, Virgina and Washington, DC hold primaries, and a nominee could be close!

MY PREDICTION?: On February 19th, Wisconsin and Hawaii hold primaries. I predict that's the day one Democrat will go "over the top" and have enough delegates for the nomination! I will be reporting from Wisconsin, on that primary date!

I will do a similar analysis of the GOP contest, and post in later today at:
www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.

Rudy Giuliani Drops Out and Endorses John Mccain

John Edwards - "Time to step aside"

BREAKING NEWS! Two Candidates Drop Out!

(Orlando, Florida)

On the heals of their poor performance in the Florida Primary, two presidential candidates will drop out today. Former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC), will make his announcement in New Orleans.

Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, (R-NY) will announce his intentions at a news conference in southern California, and endorse Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) before tonight's GOP debate.

Edwards, does not plan to endorse any fellow Democrtas at this time.

Stay tuned for the very latest at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.

Mark Curtis Talks With KPFA Radio

KPFA Radio

Mark Curtis reporting on the fallout of the Florida Primary

Florida Loss Leaves Giuliani's Future In Doubt

Senators Clinton, McCain Win Florida; Giuliani Done!!

(Orlando, Florida)

Tears flowed at the Loews Portofino Bay Universal Hotel in Orlando tonight! Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, echoing former New York Yankee great Yogi Berra said, "It's not over 'til its over." And then he chuckled. It was perhaps the only laugh of the night!

Because..it IS over for Giuliani. Associated Press and other news agencies are reporting he will go to California to endorse Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and then formally bow out of the race. When a reporter standing right next to me asked Giuliani if he was going to California, his only answer was, "I got my ticket."

He never actually dropped out tonight, but his speech had somber notes of finality: "This country is in good hands, because it is in your hands. It's in the people's hands," he said.

Giuliani supporters gathered around me hugged and cried. Actor Jon Voight, who was the leading celebrity endorsement for Giuliani told me later, "It was fun!"

Voight played with hotel staff after the event, and was so impressed by a young man who impersonated Ethel Merman, that he called the guy's mom on his cell phone. Campaigns have just unreal moments like this!
But for Rudy Giuliani it was bittersweet. People cheered when he mentioned the response to the September 11th attacks, and he promised the nation would choose a President who will respond further. It was an allusion to McCain. The two represent the moderate center of the GOP.

In Miami tonight, the scene stood in stark contrast. Even thought she won "zero" delegates, Sen. Clinton said, "Thank you for this tremendous victory tonight!" She promised to sweep through the 22 states holding primaries and caucuses next week, on "Super Tuesday."

Right now McCain and Clinton are the clear frontrunners, heading into the big "Super Tuesday" contests in California and New York.

I will be on KPFA-FM 94.1 Wednesday morning for a complete wrap-up with Aimee Allison, then at 7:45 I am "live" on KTVU's "Mornings on 2" with Ross McGowan.

It's back to California Wednesday night. Check in at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.

Youth Vote Could Set Records This year!

(Gainesville, Florida)

So who says the young don't vote?

Well, truth be told, ever since the Constitution was changed in the early 1970s, and the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18, the youth of America have voted in very small numbers. That has always surprised me given the Vietnam and Civil Rights activism, that lead to the change in the first place. The very people who wanted a young age to vote, eventually became the very people who did not exercise that right. Ironic!

Until now!

So far, we have seen record numbers of primary voters this year in the 18 to 24 age group, both male and female.

On the campaign stump in Florida, I decided to return to my old Graduate School campus and find out why?

First stop to today was the WRUF-AM/FM newsroom, where I cut my teeth in the news business 24 years ago. The students (were WE ever that young?) were excited and curious about the election process. The WUFT-TV newsroom, which I used to run and is now in the capable hands of my old dear friend Bridget Grogan, was just as electric. For some reason, in this election, the youth vote may actually matter!

The J. Wayne Reitz Union, across the lawn from the College of Journalism & Communications, was a buzz of political activity.

Political Science major, Frank Bracco, dressed as "Uncle Sam," was recruiting fellow students to vote. Reflecting his college major, Bracco simply said, "I believe in it!"

Electrical Engineering Sophomore Eric Maclean, was no less enthusiastic is his support of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX). "He's for limited government," Maclean said, "he's (Paul) for personal freedom, libertarian values, and a free market economy."

Ron Paul has had huge appeal with young voters this year. So too has Sen. Barack Obama, (D-IL). Public Relations major Marcus Dixon, is minoring in Political Science, and he is backing the first serious Black candidate who has challenged for a party nomination. Dixon was trying to sign up fellow supporters today, and admits he was very torn between Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton, (D-NY), saying they are very close on the issues.

Dixon settled on Obama saying, "He's more of a unifying figure and is inspirational."

It was inspiring to see, no matter what your party stripe. I arrived on the University of Florida campus to work on my Masters Degree in August 1984. Student indifference to the looming election between President Reagan and former Vice-president Walter Mondale was startling. Even races of local interest garnered little student support.

But time changes, and the country does too. As Florida well knows, EVERY vote counts, even those of our youngest voters!

I will be critiquing the CNN Presidential debates in California on 1-30 and 1-31, as we lead up to "Super Tuesday on 2-5. Check in often at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com

Mark Curtis covering the Florida Primary on KTVU

Greetings from Florida; Primary Voting Underway

(Oviedo, Florida)

Voting is underway, and some polling places are reporting heavy turnout this morning.
I was at a library where balloting was taking place in the Orlando suburb of Oviedo.

The latest Survey USA poll shows a very tight GOP Race: McCain 32%; Romney 31%; Giuliani 15%; Huckabee 13%; Paul 6%; Unknown/Undecided: 3%.

This is a "winner take all" fight for Florida's 57 GOP delegates.

Polls close in most areas at 7pm EST. I plan to be at Giuliani Headquarters tonight in Orlando, for what is a critical night for his campaign.

Hillary Clinton will be in Ft. Lauderdale, for a victory speech, but Democrats will NOT be handing out any delegates! Polls have Clinton 50%; Obama 30%; Edwards 12%.

I will report "live" at 7:45 with all the results Wednesday morning with Ross McGowan on "Mornings on 2" and I will be on KPFA-FM 94.1 with Aimee Allison at 7am Wednesday.

Check in for developments at: www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com

Huckabee Still in the Hunt in Florida

(Tampa, Florida)

It was the last campaign rally of a VERY long day! At 9:10 P.M. former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) strolled into an airplane hanger at Tampa International Airport.

Denying some media reports, Huckabee said flat out, "We have not pulled out of Florida." A crowd of more than 300, cheered him on.

They cheered even louder when Huckabee talked of creating his so-called "Fair Tax" and abolishing the IRS, Internal Revenue Service. He spoke of the Tax code and IRS being roadblocks, especially to small business start-ups. "Its crushing their dreams, crushing their hopes," he said of the federal tax system.

The insurgent candidate who won the Iowa Caucus, but no where else sense, needs a strong Florida showing to stay in the race. Finishing ahead of a faltering Rudy Giuliani here, could be Huckabee's ticket to next week's "Super Tuesday."

Huckabee, worked the crowd like the Evangelical minister he is, friendly, warm and with some touching, engaging anecdotes. He mentioned his stands against gay marriage, and abortion, positions popular with his followers. Not afraid to speak of his own faith, Huckabee cited the work of the Founding Fathers, and how the nation was formed. "It was the hand of a Provident God," he said. And, "we should never be ashamed of the heritage of this great land of ours," he added.

But Huckabee was "preaching to the choir" in a sense, and it remains to be seen if his loyal supporters can turn out other friends and neighbors, to keep his shoestring campaign on track.

I'll be "live" outside a polling place in Orlando on Tuesday, first with Aimee Allison on KPFA-FM 94.1 Radio in Berkeley at 7 a.m. Then join me Ross McGowan, at 7:45 on KTVU's "Morning's on Two." And stop by all day at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.

Giuliani Makes Final Florida Push

Monday, January 28, 2008

(Sanford, Florida)



Bright and early this morning, the Rudy 2008 Campaign bus pulled into the Sanford-Orlando airport, about 45 minutes late. Was it a metaphor for the entire Giuliani campaign? We'll find out Tuesday.



Part of it may be that Giuliani virtually skipped Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina. He skipped Vegas too, choosing instead to roll all his dice in Florida, January 29th. Its a gamble. At best the latest polls show him a distant third in the Sunshine State.



To a small but cheering mob of about 150, Giuliani said, "I am the only one who has reduced taxes." You see, the issue has changed from his trademark of national security, to the economy, and Giuliani's poll numbers dropped liked the Dow Jones did, last week.



He spoke today, mostly of economic issues. Cutting takes, reduced government spending, boilerplate Republican stuff. He also called for increasing the military, and creating a National Catastrophe Fund to help states devastated by disaster. Hurricane prone Florida would like that, but is it enough to motivate people at the polls tomorrow?



Like many candidates, Giuliani brought celebrity help. Today it was Oscar winning actor, and New York City native Jon Voight. Recalling the 9-11 attacks, Voight said, "All the world was watching this guy and we were behind him as Americans."



Florida Attorney General and former Congressman Bill McCollum was here as well, praising Giuliani as a crime fighter. "He cleaned up the mob," said McCollum.



Gov. Rick Perry, (R-Texas) who succeeded George W. Bush, praised Giuliani for turning New York City around, saying he "took New York, to a jewel, from a cesspool." Several people from New York, in the large press pool, gasped when he said that. Loyal New Yorkers don't like outsiders ridiculing their city, no matter how bad it might have been.
There was one funny moment: when Giuliani promised to send the first American to Mars, someone in the crowd shouted, "Hillary!" too much laughter! It was the only light moment of the rally.


As Giuliani neared the end of his speech this morning he said, "In the past, I've done the impossible, or what people thought was impossible."



Tuesday in Florida, we'll see if he can do it again, or if the sun will set on his campaign.



I'll be covering Mitt Romney, John McCain and Mike Huckabee later today. Check back often for updates at www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com.

Giuliani Campaign Speech in Sanford. Jan. 28th

McCain Stirs Tampa Crowd's Passions

(Tampa, Florida)

It's a fight to the finish in Florida! As Mitt Romney did earlier today, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), made reference in his speech tonight, to the razor thin margin in the latest polls. Some have McCain up slightly, others Romney. It's a dead heat going into Tuesday's GOP Primary here.

"We need you to get out and vote," McCain said to cheering supporters at the Tampa Convention Center, in a dinner time rally as he "hopscotched" across the state.

McCain and Romney have exchanged some heated exchanges in recent days, but McCain steered clear of that tonight, never even mentioning any of his GOP opponents. Instead his words of anger were directed at Al-Qaeda and Islamic terrorists. "This is the greatest force of evil this nation has ever faced," said the one-time Vietnam prisoner of war. McCain once again vowed to "chase Osama bin Laden to the gates of hell" to capture the world's most wanted terrorist.

The Arizona Senator was introduced by Gov. Charlie Christ (R-FL), who endorsed McCain. "Ladies and gentleman you know what the facts are. This is an American hero" referring to McCain's military service and bravery in Vietnam and the 5 1/2 years he was held prisoner in the "Hanoi Hilton."

"He fought for his country, unlike many of his opponents," said former long-time Tampa Republican Congressman Michael Bilirakis, who also shared the stage.

McCain also promised better health care for U.S. Veterans, a pledge that will play well in a state with a huge military infrastructure.

"America's greatest days are ahead of us," said the 71 year old McCain. Whether he will lead the nation in those days, could be heavily swayed by Tuesday Florida primary.

We'll catch up with former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) later tonight in Tampa. Stay tuned at: www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com for the very latest!

Romney Rocks Airport Crowd

(Sanford, Florida)

It's a battle for momentum! And it's a battle of dueling airport campaign stops, as candidates hold "fly arounds" in the awkward shaped state of Florida. Trivia buffs will note it is the longest state in the nation from end-to-end, even longer than California, and even more difficult to navigate politically.
If Rudy Giuliani's was only sparsely attended this morning, former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) had a much larger and more enthused crowd, this afternoon at the Sanford-Orlando Airport.

Upwards of 600 people packed an airplane hanger, to hear the ex-Olympic chief, turned ex-Chief executive.

Rep. Tom Feeney, (R-FL), a Romney backer from Congress stressed the Olympic theme, saying, "We need somebody like Governor Romney, who turned around a disaster in Salt Lake City. We need a turnaround artist (in Washington, DC) and that is Gov. Romney." The crowd cheered its approval!

Feeney also praised Romney's single term as Massachusetts Governor, cutting a $3 billion dollar deficit, and creating 60 thousand new jobs.

Romney was the star of the cord, and noted he is deadlocked in the polls with Sen. John McCain, (R-AZ). The message: get out and vote, and call friends and get them to the polls Tuesday as well. He called McCain a hero (wise in this strong military state), but said the Arizona Senator was just weak on economic issues.

Romney promised a "Reagan approach to the economy," a reference to tax cuts, and fair trade. By no coincidence, a road leading to this airport is named after Ronald Reagan, a testimony to his enduring popularity in the Sunshine State.
Running as a Washington, DC "outsider" in the mold of Regan, Romney said of official Washington, "They said they'd cut back on earmarks and pork-barrel spending. They haven't, we will."

Romney repeated to the same mantra for failed energy and immigration policies and the crowed echoed his chorus: "They haven't, we will!"

He noted that Florida could once again determine who goes to the White House, and the first step in that direction happens tomorrow!

Stay tuned, as I will be at McCain and Huckabee events later today! www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com

Barack Obama: South Carolina Victory Speech

Hillary Clinton Heads to Florida Tuesday; Giuliani Hangs On

(Orlando, Florida)

In a bold move, that may upset party leaders, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) will head to Florida for a campaign rally Tuesday night. Tuesday's Democratic primary here was strictly a "beauty contest." No delegates will be selected, because Florida is being punished by the national party, for disobeying orders and moving the primary, to a week before "Super Tuesday."

So, candidates had a "hand shake" deal, NOT to buy ads, or campaign in person in Florida.

But Clinton wants to appear Tuesday night after the voting is over. Polls show her with over double the support or Obama, in what is supposed to be a meaningless vote. Yet, by coming here for a victory rally, she will garner all the national press as if she actually WON the primary delegates.

In a statement, Clinton said “I will try to persuade my delegates to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida,” arguing that she was bowing to political reality. “The people of Florida deserve to be represented in the process of picking a candidate for president of the United States.”

Party elders are bound to be furious, but if it appears to voters that Clinton won something significant in Florida, that could counter her big loss to Barack Obama in Saturday's South Carolina primary. A pretty gutsy political move. This is "hardball" politics folks, so it could backfire too!

Barack Obama on the other hand, may "one up" Clinton regardless of Florida anyway.

Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) is set to endorse Obama, and so to is President John Kennedy's only remaining survivor, his daughter Caroline. This is a stunning development since the Clinton's and Kennedy's were once very close, and even vacationed together. What sparked what amounts to a "royal family feud" among the Democratic elite has yet to be made public, but the Kennedy's were known to be furious at the Clinton family's attacks on Obama, the first serious Black contender ever for the Presidency.

The one person loving all this must be former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, (R-NY)who badly needs a win in Florida to stay in the race. Now, with so much attention on the Democrats feuding, Giuliani may skirt a lot of press attention, and live on to "Super Tuesday" next week!

I will be covering a Giuliani campaign event in Central Florida Monday morning, so check back here for updates: www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com. Being back in Florida feels like home. I lived and worked here for nine years, after earning my Master's Degree at the University of Florida in Gainesville.

BREAKING NEWS: Obama Wins South Carolina Primary

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) won the South Carolina Democratic Primary today. Sen. Hillary Clinton, (D-NY) was second and former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC), finished a distant third. Edwards, who was born in South Carolina, promised to stay in the race.

 

CNN exit polling showed that almost half of South Carolina voters made up their minds, over a month ago, despite recent contentious debates!

With 99% of precincts reporting the vote was: Obama 55%; Clinton 27%; Edwards 18%.
That means Obama picked up 25 convention delegates to 12 for Clinton and 8 for Edwards.

Sunday I head to Florida to cover Tuesdays primary! Check in for updates at www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com

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Who's never won? Biggest Grammy Award surprises of all time on AOL Music.

South Carolina Polls Open; Florida Looms

The nasty debates are over, its time for South Carolina Democrats to vote! Polls opened this morning, with record turnout predicted by elections officials.

The latest RCP Poll(Real Clear Politics)has it Obama 38%; Clinton 27%; Edwards 19%; Uncommitted 15%. RCP is an average of several recent polls from other media sources.

While South Carolina votes today, many candidates on the GOP side will be stumping in Florida.


The latest RCP poll there shows a very tight race for Tuesday's balloting: McCain 26.1%; Romney 25.6%; Giuliani 18%; Huckabee 14%; Paul 5%; Undecided 11%.

Democrats have a "beauty contest" in Florida, with no delegates at stake. Still, a win can mean momentum going into Super Tuesday, February 5th. The latest RCP Poll has it: Clinton 47%; Obama 28%; Edwards 13%; 12% Undecided.


I will be in Florida as of Sunday January 27, with previews of Tuesday's vote. Tell your friends to come visit: www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com.


South Carolina results will be posted later today!

Former Bush Press Secretary Wows California Crowd!

(Concord, CA)

Former White House Secretary Tony Snow spoke to a sold-out crowd at the Annual Contra Costa USA dinner on Thursday night. I had the honor to 'emcee' the event and to introduce and interview Tony.


He was widely praised by a bi-partisan crowd, for discussing his insights on the White House and the Presidential campaign. Snow also spoke in depth about his continuing battle against stage-4 colon cancer.

He saved his most critical comments, for Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign for President, blaming its troubles on former President Bill Clinton.
"Her Rapscallion husband. He should shut up, " Snow said, "She's running for President." Later he added, "Bill Clinton is a wedge politician," and suggested the Clinton's are playing the "race card" against Barack Obama.

But Snow ultimately believes Hillary Clinton will win the nomination, based on the tough political experience that both she and her husband possess. He noted that the Clinton's have superior money and organization.

In one of the speech's funnier moments he said his old boss, President George W. Bush, might describe Hillary as "somebody who you should never mis-underestimate." The crowd roared with laughter!



Snow did praise Barack Obama's uplifting message, that has inspired so many young voters to come out, since they are a group that seldom votes: "Barack Obama is the only one who 'gets it' in terms of hope and optimism," Snow said.

On the Republican side, Snow called the race a real toss up and noted Florida's primary on Tuesday could be crucial. He called Rudy Giuliani's strategy of focusing almost solely on Florida, as "a roll of the dice in Florida, a riverboat gamble." But ultimately Snow thinks Giuliani will fail, because he took himself out of the critical Iowa and New Hampshire contests, and ultimately out of the media spotlight glaring on both states. "He (Giuliani) made himself irrelevant," Snow said.

Snow said Mitt Romney had perhaps the best resume' on the GOP side, but needed to jettison his "Ken doll" image. Snow praised Sen. John McCain for not bailing on President Bush when it comes to supporting the war in Iraq. "The one issue on which he (McCain) has been tough, has been the war." McCain is one of the few in Washington who supported the troop surge last year, a stance that cost him politically for a while, but his support has surged back.


At the end of the night, Snow spoke movingly of his fight against cancer, and the support of his wife and three children as well as a huge public outpouring. "People came out of the woodwork to help," Snow said.

He continues to recover from his cancer, and even stopped during his speech to take 3 Chemotherapy pills. He praised the great advances in medicine, his religious faith and the kindness of people, for his continuing victory against colon cancer.

I will be in Florida as of Sunday to cover the GOP Primary: Please check in often and tell your friends about www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com.

"Comedy a Good Antidote for Politics

(Concord, CA)

 

It's gray and chilly outside, dark and gloomy! No its not the weather forecast, its the Presidential campaign!

 

There's nothing better for dull politics, than political comedy. Nowhere was that more true than today at the Hilton Hotel in Concord, CA. Its the annual Contra Costa USA event, sponsored by the Contra Costa Council, the county's leading civic and business association.

 

Contra Costa County is a community of one-million people on the east side of San Francisco Bay, and is just north of Alameda County, the home of Oakland.

 

Opening today's festivities was well known political comedian Will Durst, who I have known casually for 30 years. Will and I both grew up in Milwaukee, and once even performed "stand-up comedy" together at the infamous but now closed "Jacks or Better" nightclub in the western suburb of Wauwatosa, back in 1978. Will moved to San Francisco and a very successful comedy career. I wound up here, as a successful TV reporter and anchorman at KTVU. Small world!

 

Will is the nation's best political comedian, and today he skewered everyone:

 

Bill Clinton: "When he said: 'I never had sexual relations with that woman. He was actually pointing at Helen Thomas.' (The famed UPI reporter who covered that last 10 presidents). The crowd roared with laughter!

 

Durst cited some hilarious (and real) quotes from current President George W. Bush: "Border relations between Mexico and Canada have never been better!" Bush once said.

 

In a speech on the economy Bush once said: "The French don't have a word for entrepreneur."  As Will Durst noted, "You can't make this stuff up!"

 

He also poked fun at Bush's immigration policy: "How are you going to build a 750 mile fence along the Mexican border, without Mexican labor? What are you gonna use, housewives from La Jolla?" (the wealthy San Diego suburb)

 

He gave equal time to beating up Democrats, noting that Hillary Clinton once said of President Bush after they met: "I find it inconceivable that a sitting president of the United States would lie to me." The irony, given the impeachment, was hilarious! The crowd loved it.

 

And he found it silly we've picked succeeding Presidents with the nicknames "W and Bubba."  Durst pondered, "Why do we keep picking the Dukes of Hazard to run the country? Who's next? Cooter?" Or is that Hillary Clinton's nickname, he wondered.

 

Tonight Tony Snow, the former White House Press Secretary, will be the keynote speaker at Contra Costa USA. I will be here to introduce him and to cover the event!

 

On Sunday I begin my reports from Florida on the GOP Primary there, which is Tuesday. Please stop by to visit and tell your friends about www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com.

 

 

To Durst, the biggest punch line to Campaign 2008, is this: "The scary part is one of these guys is gonna win!"  

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Start the year off right. Easy ways to stay in shape in the new year.

"Its Soundling like a 'Broken Record'"

This may be a new concept to people under 21, but everyone older will remember.

You're playing your favorite song on a record or album (those dinosaurs we had before CDs), and the song begins to skip. Say the "Beatles" singing..."I wanna hold your (skip) I wanna hold your (skip), I wanna hold your (skip)...and finally in frustration your push the "needle"...and we find out the thing Paul McCartney wanted to hold, was indeed your hand!


I tell this story, because the 2008 campaign is starting to sound like a "broken record," at least when it comes to voter turnout (and yes also because the candidates giving the same speeches, over and over).

But voter turnout this year has been amazing, setting records in every state so far. New Hampshire almost ran out of ballots in some precincts. California is predicting a record turnout on Super Tuesday, with 50 to 53 % of people casting ballots, many of them by mail.

Much of this is driven by the fact that we have hotly contested races on BOTH sides of the aisle, something that really has not occurred to this magnitude since 1968. And this is the first Presidential election since 1952, where no incumbent President or Vice-President was on the ballot! It's simply wide open, even as each side has jettisoned some candidates in the past week.


Iowa broke a turnout record, so too did New Hampshire, Nevada and Florida also expects the same for Tuesday's GOP contest, with Democrats likely to do the same in South Carolina Saturday.

I was at the Registrar of Elections office in Martinez, CA on Tuesday, and there was a steady stream of people coming into to register, or to change party affiliation. Voter interest is at an all-time high here! A very controversial "term limits" initiative on the CA ballots is fueling voter interest even higher!

The sad news is that a 53% voter turnout may be record setting, but 47% of registered voters still stay home.

Still, its a "broken record" that is likely to keep on playing until the General Election in the fall. Election studies indicate that high voter turnout in the primaries, means high or record voter turnouts in November!

I will be in Florida as of this Sunday, for complete coverage of the states GOP Primary on Tuesday!

BREAKING NEWS: Fred Thompson out of GOP Field

Former U.S. Senator Fred Thompson (R-TN), today bowed out of the Presidential Primary race. Thompson, a popular Southerner, fared poorly in South Carolina's primary over the weekend and decided he would not push ahead in the Florida primary this coming Tuesday.

 

Thompson is best known to many American's as a film and TV actor, having starred in "The Hunt for Red October" and "Law & Order" among many others.

 

He also gained fame 35 years ago, as the Minority Counsel on the Senate Watergate Committee. He was a protégé of then Sen. Howard Baker, (R-TN), who later helped launch Thompson's own political career.

 

Thompson is 65, and a solid Southern conservative. Look for his name to be mentioned often as a Vice-presidential running mate, no matter who ultimately wins the GOP nomination.

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Start the year off right. Easy ways to stay in shape in the new year.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama Fight!!!!!!!

South Carolina Slugfest as Primary Nears

All this debate needed was Vince McMahon, from WWE (World Wrestling Entertainment) as its ringleader!

There were bodyslams, gouged eyes and sucker punches as the Democratic debate resembled more of one of McMahon's famed fights (his are scripted and staged). Truth be told, some of the "hits' last night were probably anticipated, and the "counter punches" scripted.

For example, when Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) accused Hillary Clinton of "sending jobs overseas" when she was on the Board of Directors of Walmart, she countered that he once did legal work for a "slum landlord" in Chicago, it was high drama and great theatre!



But those moments were more anticipated by each camp, than they were spontaneous. These are smart folks, who are well prepared. They go into the debates with some semblance of what the other side might say bad about them, and with some idea of a planned response!

It takes me back to the 1988 Vice-presidential debate when Lloyd Bentsen "slammed" Dan Quayle, with the "I knew Jack Kennedy" line. The Bentsen campaign "planned" that response well ahead of time, if Quayle tried to compare his length in public office to Kennedy's (which were in fact quite similar in duration).

Poor John Edwards must have felt like Admiral Jim Stockdale (Ross Perot's '92 running mate). Stockdale, seemingly out of place, opened with "Who am I? Why am I here?" Writers at "Saturday Night Live" were forever grateful!

But former Sen. Edwards (D-NC) was right last night when he said the Obama-Clinton feud wouldn't get any needy children health care. He was right, but was anyone listening to him? Edwards could be a power broker and determine the nominee, if the other two deadlock.

Democratic voters in South Carolina go to the polls this Saturday. The latest "Real Clear Politics" poll which is the average of several polls has it: Obama 43%; Clinton 32%; Edwards 14%; and the all important "undecided-uncommitted" at 10%.

Today, please take the time to e-mail 5 friends and family members and tell them about this political blog: www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com

I will be in Florida beginning on Sunday, to cover Tuesday's 1-29 GOP primary. It could be a "do-or-die" vote for former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, (R-NY). In a scene reminiscent of Michael Dukakis's famed 1988 "tank ride" Giuliani took his campaign bus for a VERY slow lap around the Daytona 500 race track in Florida Monday. One hopes it was a not a "metaphor" for his campaign prospects in the Sunshine state!

Important Deadline for California Voters!

(Martinez, CA)

 

Tuesday January 22, marks a crucial deadline for many California voters!

 

Voters who register as non-partisans, known as "decline to state" have until 1-22, to change their registration if they wish to vote in the Republican Primary on "Super Tuesday" February 5th. They can later change back to "decline to state."

 

In years past, the GOP allowed non-partisans to choose a Republican ballot, if they wished. This year the party changed the rules. So if you want to vote for a GOP candidate, you must change registration tomorrow.

 

Democrats are NOT affected by this, as that party still allows "decline to states" to select a Democratic ballot!

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Start the year off right. Easy ways to stay in shape in the new year.

Looks Can be Deceiving; Watch the Delegate Count

If you watch the election coverage after the Nevada Caucuses and the GOP primary in South Carolina, you come away with the clear impression that Democrat Sen. Hillary Clinton, (D-NY) and Republican Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) are the clear front runners.

Not so! Look again!

Its time to start counting delegates, instead of election night victories.

Much like the General Election, in which Electoral Votes and NOT popular votes are needed to win, so too is the parallel case in the primaries. You need to win a certain number of delegates to win the nomination: Democrats 2,025 and Republicans 1,191.

Despite Clinton's win in Nevada, 51% to 45% for Sen. Barack Obama, (D-IL), Obama actually won "one" more delegate in Nevada, than Clinton, because he took more precincts in rural areas. Nationally Obama has 38 delegates, to Clinton's 36, and John Edward's 16. So it's still any one's nomination with the third place finisher playing the role of "kingmaker" if no one has enough delegates by Convention time! For example, Edwards could direct his delegates to vote for Clinton or Obama, in exchange for the VP spot on the ticket.

The same goes for the Republicans. Right now Mitt Romney has by far the most delegates (66), despite all the hoopla for McCain victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina. The Arizona maverick has 33 delegates, followed by Huckabee 26; Fred Thompson 8; Ron Paul 6; Rudy Giuliani 1 and Duncan Hunter (who today dropped out) 1. A brokered GOP convention could also mean a lot of "horse trading" for enough delegates to win the nomination.


So, delegates matter; pre-primary polls really don't!

I say this because the BIG contests are the Democratic Primary in South Carolina and the GOP Primary in Florida the following Tuesday, January 29. Right now the polls have Obama up in South Carolina, with McCain and Giuliani running close in Florida, 23 to 20...with Romney 18 and Huckbee 17%, showing strength. So, McCain could eak out a close win, but a close second by Romney keeps him ahead in the overall delegate count!

Bottom line: looks can be deceiving, at those victory parties! Keep your eyes on the overall delegate count, as we head toward Super Tuesday when 22 states hold primaries!

Tell your friend's to stop by: www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com. We welcome your comments!

McCain Wins South Carolina

(((McCain's Speech in South Carolina)))

Clinton Cheers Win in Nevada Popular Vote

Keep an Eye on "Undecideds" in Polls

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(Las Vegas, Nevada)
It was great to be "live" from Las Vegas Friday morning, on KTVU's "Mornings on Two!"
The race is exciting in the final days leading up to the Saturday Caucuses. The latest "Las Vegas Review-Journal" Poll has Hillary Clinton at 41%; Barack Obama at 32% and John Edwards at 14%. That leaves a key 12% undecided. Remember what those "undecideds" did in New Hampshire. Sadly the pollsters keep burying those numbers, sometimes with embarassing results!

This poll is even more suspicious, since a "Reno Gazette-Journal" poll this week had it Obama 32%; Clinton 30% and Edwards 27%. How can two polls in the SAME state have such different results in the same week? Well, it has a lot to do with "sampling" and the poll's "population." Reno and Northern Nevada have a more rural, conservative population, than Las Vegas. If the papers sample their "own" markets, but not the entire state, the sample can be "skewed." Polls are only good if they pick a representative sample of the entire population. Keep this in mind for future polling disparities

On the GOP side, the "Las Vegas" paper has it Romney 34%; McCain 19%; Huckabee 13%. This is stunning, since the paper's last poll in December had Rudy Giuliani in the lead! Today's poll had him in sixth place! Romney shifted a LOT of his last minute campaign resources to Nevada, since he may fair poorly in South Carolina's GOP Primary tomorrow. A Nevada win would "counter punch" that loss!

With polls showing Hillary Clinton perhaps lagging in South Carolina (Democarts vote there next Saturday), she too has ramped up her presence in Nevada in recent days!

We'll see if those bets, pay off on Saturday!

Meantime, tell all your friends to visit www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com.