Campaign Maps Paint Fascinating Puzzle

(Danville, California)

 

    The wonders of the internet never cease. For political junkies like me, there is always something new to catch my eye. This year it is the plethora of Electoral College prediction maps. Just Google "electoral map predictions," and you'll find plenty! Some are very interactive and have state-by-state polling, so you can tell where the race is close and where it isn't.

 

    The maps vary a great deal. One shows Barack Obama way up, with 320 electoral votes - 50 more than he needs to become President. The most fascinating one, though, is from www.politicalmaps.org, which shows Obama and John McCain tied at 269 electoral votes apiece.

 

    Based on my look at a variety of these electoral maps and at state polling, I think we are in for a very close race on election night; and I am still looking at a one-state margin to decide the entire race. The sad part of this is that the drama may end early on election night, because some of the "bellwether" states are on the East Coast and could affect turnout in the West. For example, if Virginia (a normally Republican state), goes Democratic, it could be a bad night for McCain. On the other hand, if Pennsylvania (a traditionally Democratic state), goes for McCain, Obama may be in trouble. If both states "buck the system," we're in for a long, wild night!

 

    As I always tell folks, each of these maps, like the polls, represents a single "snapshot" in time. What a particular map predicts in July may not be what it will show in November. Swings in the economy, ups and downs in gas prices, the candidates' selection of running mates, and terrorist activity (or the lack thereof) can all affect the polls and maps. Nothing is cast in stone. For example, politicalmaps.org had the GOP up by 20 electoral votes last November, before we even had nominees!

 

    I was at the Danville Veterans Memorial Building on July 4th, announcing the town parade as it passed by. Two of my retired military friends were having quite a debate- one predicting an Obama landslide and the other predicting a close McCain win. The point is that this race is wide open. We vote in November, not in July!

 

    I will be at both political conventions this year. The Democrats are in Denver beginning August 25, and the Republicans are in St. Paul as of September 1. Check in often at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com. We will update those maps, all summer long!

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