(Danville, California)
While we await the official announcement by Barack Obama of his chosen running mate, I wonder whether the foreign policy developments of the past ten days have forced his hand. Today a new poll shows John McCain leading Obama nationally by five percentage points. That's a stunning turnaround for McCain.
Why the improvement in McCain's numbers? Well, maybe his longer resume, military credentials and life experience matter to many independent and previously undecided voters.
No one foresaw Russia's invasion of Georgia. Many people had thought Vladimir Putin was at least a "reasonable" Russian/Soviet leader, if there is really such a thing. In any case, I wonder whether now Obama has only one choice for VP, that being Delaware Senator Joe Biden. Biden, who chairs the crucial Foreign Relations Committee, has thirty-six years in the Senate. He may be about to become the "Dick Cheney" of the Democratic Party,
I say that not because Biden and Cheney share a similar world view. They don't. But what they hold in common is deep Washington and foreign-policy experience, and each has begrudging respect from the other side of the political aisle. Cheney was brought in to shore up George W. Bush's perceived lack of experience, and he made people feel more comfortable with the top of the ticket. Obama has similar problems, and his picking Sen. Evan Bayh or Gov. Tim Kaine at this point won't ease the concerns of the voters. As CBS political analyst Jeff Greenfield recently noted, Obama is looking for a "graybeard," a respected party elder with a resume. Today, filmmaker Michael Moore suggested Obama pick Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg, daughter of the late President. Is he crazy? Obama needs a Darth Vader more than he needs a Camelot!
Oddly, Vladimir Putin may have forced Obama's hand in this decision. Suddenly John McCain's steely-eyed temperament looks more reassuring than Obama's willingness to negotiate with wayward foreign leaders. We'll see how voters judge this moment.
It's what I call "the politics of unforeseen events." Things no one is expecting can turn the landscape 180 degrees in politics, and this is one of those times. Two weeks ago, Evan Bayh might have been a shoe-in for the VP sweepstakes. Today Joe Biden looks like the all-but-certain pick.
The announcement could come at any moment. Check in often at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com. And remember! The all new blog is coming soon, as I get ready to hit the road to both political conventions.
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