For the Democrats, the choice is now down to two. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL). While they will likely jab and counter-punch, much like they did in the South Carolina debate, you might want to score this fight by the delegate count.
Democrats need 2,025 delegates the nomination.
Clinton has 256; Obama 181 and Edwards 64.
I did some math with the help of polls at www.RealClearPolitics.com to help assess what may happen on Super Tuesday, February 5th.
CLINTON LEADS or is tied, in the following states, with Delegate counts:
Alabama (60); Arizona (67); California (441); tied in Connecticut (60); Delaware (23); Kansas (41) Massachusetts (121); Minnesota (88) Missouri (88); New Jersey (127); New York, 281; Oklahoma (47); Tennessee (85).
OBAMA LEADS or is tied in: Colorado (71); tied in Connecticut (60); Georgia (103); Illinois (185);
So, Hillary Clinton leads in states with 1,499 delegates; Obama leads in states with 389 delegates today.
Keep in mind, Democratic delegates are handed out proportionally. There is no "winner take all" state. In total, 2,064 delegates are available on Super Tuesday.
So the question is: Will we have a Democratic nominee on "Super Tuesday?"
My prediction is NO! Hillary Clinton would have to win %85 of the delegates, just on Tuesday, to be the nominee. The scenarios for Obama is even more daunting!
When could we have a Democartic Nominee? Well on February 12th, Maryland, Virgina and Washington, DC hold primaries, and a nominee could be close!
MY PREDICTION?: On February 19th, Wisconsin and Hawaii hold primaries. I predict that's the day one Democrat will go "over the top" and have enough delegates for the nomination! I will be reporting from Wisconsin, on that primary date!
I will do a similar analysis of the GOP contest, and post in later today at:
www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.
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