Looks Can be Deceiving; Watch the Delegate Count

If you watch the election coverage after the Nevada Caucuses and the GOP primary in South Carolina, you come away with the clear impression that Democrat Sen. Hillary Clinton, (D-NY) and Republican Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) are the clear front runners.

Not so! Look again!

Its time to start counting delegates, instead of election night victories.

Much like the General Election, in which Electoral Votes and NOT popular votes are needed to win, so too is the parallel case in the primaries. You need to win a certain number of delegates to win the nomination: Democrats 2,025 and Republicans 1,191.

Despite Clinton's win in Nevada, 51% to 45% for Sen. Barack Obama, (D-IL), Obama actually won "one" more delegate in Nevada, than Clinton, because he took more precincts in rural areas. Nationally Obama has 38 delegates, to Clinton's 36, and John Edward's 16. So it's still any one's nomination with the third place finisher playing the role of "kingmaker" if no one has enough delegates by Convention time! For example, Edwards could direct his delegates to vote for Clinton or Obama, in exchange for the VP spot on the ticket.

The same goes for the Republicans. Right now Mitt Romney has by far the most delegates (66), despite all the hoopla for McCain victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina. The Arizona maverick has 33 delegates, followed by Huckabee 26; Fred Thompson 8; Ron Paul 6; Rudy Giuliani 1 and Duncan Hunter (who today dropped out) 1. A brokered GOP convention could also mean a lot of "horse trading" for enough delegates to win the nomination.


So, delegates matter; pre-primary polls really don't!

I say this because the BIG contests are the Democratic Primary in South Carolina and the GOP Primary in Florida the following Tuesday, January 29. Right now the polls have Obama up in South Carolina, with McCain and Giuliani running close in Florida, 23 to 20...with Romney 18 and Huckbee 17%, showing strength. So, McCain could eak out a close win, but a close second by Romney keeps him ahead in the overall delegate count!

Bottom line: looks can be deceiving, at those victory parties! Keep your eyes on the overall delegate count, as we head toward Super Tuesday when 22 states hold primaries!

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