(Las Vegas, Nevada)
It was great to be "live" from Las Vegas Friday morning, on KTVU's "Mornings on Two!"
The race is exciting in the final days leading up to the Saturday Caucuses. The latest "Las Vegas Review-Journal" Poll has Hillary Clinton at 41%; Barack Obama at 32% and John Edwards at 14%. That leaves a key 12% undecided. Remember what those "undecideds" did in New Hampshire. Sadly the pollsters keep burying those numbers, sometimes with embarassing results!
This poll is even more suspicious, since a "Reno Gazette-Journal" poll this week had it Obama 32%; Clinton 30% and Edwards 27%. How can two polls in the SAME state have such different results in the same week? Well, it has a lot to do with "sampling" and the poll's "population." Reno and Northern Nevada have a more rural, conservative population, than Las Vegas. If the papers sample their "own" markets, but not the entire state, the sample can be "skewed." Polls are only good if they pick a representative sample of the entire population. Keep this in mind for future polling disparities
On the GOP side, the "Las Vegas" paper has it Romney 34%; McCain 19%; Huckabee 13%. This is stunning, since the paper's last poll in December had Rudy Giuliani in the lead! Today's poll had him in sixth place! Romney shifted a LOT of his last minute campaign resources to Nevada, since he may fair poorly in South Carolina's GOP Primary tomorrow. A Nevada win would "counter punch" that loss!
With polls showing Hillary Clinton perhaps lagging in South Carolina (Democarts vote there next Saturday), she too has ramped up her presence in Nevada in recent days!
We'll see if those bets, pay off on Saturday!
Meantime, tell all your friends to visit www.markcurtismedia.blogspot.com.
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