Clinton's Final Strategy

(Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)

Let's be clear on this: Hillary Clinton still faces an uphill fight for the Democratic nomination. In many respects, it's Barack Obama's race to lose, and he can lose. But for now, he's in the driver's seat with the most delegates, the most primary and caucus wins and the most popular votes.

So how does Hillary Clinton win? At her victory rally on Tuesday night, I spoke with two people who are key players on the Clinton campaign. First is Ann Lewis, a long-time Democratic operative and former White House Communications Director under Bill Clinton. She is also the sister of Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA).

Lewis says keeping the momentum alive is key for Clinton, and after winning Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, Clinton has the momentum on her side. Lewis said, "Our strategy is simple. She’s the candidate that can win in November. We've just got to get out there and prove it.” Democrats must win Pennsylvania in November (and they usually do), to win the White House. But the Keystone state has a large number of independents and blue-collar Democrats who sometimes cross over, as they did in 1980, 1984 and 1988, handing the state to Ronald Reagan twice and to George H.W. Bush. John McCain says he will launch an aggressive fight to win Pennsylvania.

Ann Lewis also told me that Hillary Clinton must win at least one state on May 6, as North Carolina and Indiana hold primaries. The latest polls have Obama ahead in North Carolina by 16 points, but Clinton ahead in Indiana by 3 points. The Hoosier state appears to be the crucial battleground for Clinton.

Helping Clinton win in Indiana is going to fall on the shoulders of the Ohio Congresswoman who helped her win in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones is a firebrand speaker who just electrifies the crowds. Tubbs-Jones told me, "My philosophy is we just take these one state at a time. I will be campaigning with President Clinton in North Carolina," she said. "Then I'm going to Indiana," Tubbs-Jones added. She personifies the fact that Clinton is still popular among African Americans, especially women. She can help Clinton carry enough of the black vote to win Indiana.

All of these items fall into Clinton's main strategy: Win enough of the remaining states and delegates, so that you appear to be surging and turning the tide of political momentum in your favor. The big, overall message being: "I am actually the candidate who can win in November!" That will be very powerful to those still undecided "Super Delegates" that she needs to win the nomination.

The other thing to watch here is the popular vote. Obama leads Clinton by about 500,000 votes. She gained on him by over 200,000 just in Pennsylvania alone. So it's possible Clinton can win the popular vote (especially if you count the currently disqualified votes from Florida and Michigan).

Hillary and Bill Clinton have been political underdogs many times in their careers and have a penchant for "pulling the rabbit out of a hat" at the last minute.
Obama still leads this race, but don't be too surprised if she pulls off a last minute upset.

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