Friday, April 25, 2008

Don't Forget Florida and Michigan

(Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)
 
There is a lot to remember about this year's Pennsylvania primary and what it may mean to the nomination process. It was a fun and exciting week. One of the lasting impressions I will have is that of the three ladies I met from an interesting web site: www.hireheels.com. They make no bones about it; they are backing Sen. Hillary Clinton for President.
 
The most fascinating thing about them is that they came all the way from Florida to Philadelphia - on their own dime - to make their case. They are all but certain the plight of their fellow Florida voters (and Michigan's) is being lost in the process.
 
Leading the charge is Diane Mantouvalos of Miami. She and her cohorts are lobbying the Democratic National Committee and its chairman, Howard Dean, to seat a slate of delegates from Florida.
"When it comes to seating Florida and Michigan, it is clouding his (Dean's) judgement," Mantouvalos said. "I'm not even a Democrat," she adds. "I'm an independent."
 
She feels the media focus has been on the closeness of the race and on the back-and-forth victories of Obama and Clinton. Lost in the process is the fact that the votes and delegates of two of the largest states are not even being counted. "Everyone is consumed by the margin," Mantouvalos said.
 
The great untold media story of Tuesday night is that Hillary Clinton has now surged ahead in the popular vote if you include Florida and Michigan votes in the count.  Clinton's net gain in Pennsylvania was 215,000 votes, which is far greater than the number of delegates she picked up, when compared to Barack Obama.
 
Clinton has a popular vote lead of 122,000 if you count both Florida and Michigan, according to RealClearPolitics.com. Without those two states, Obama still leads nationally by 500,000 votes. If she does well enough in the remaining states, Clinton could wipe out that lead, too.
 
The big problem for the national Democratic Party is that it is becoming victim of the very type of system it attacked in 2000. Yes, Al Gore had more popular votes than George W. Bush, but Bush had the most Electoral Votes (the ones that really count). In this case you need the most delegates to win, but the popular vote may more accurately reflect the "will of the people."
 
If Hillary Clinton winds up in the lead with popular votes, that may swing enough undecided Super Delegates her way to win the nomination. As many of her supporters now say, it's about who has the best chance for beating John McCain in November, not about who won the most individual state primaries.
 
If Clinton does win the nomination, she has a bunch of ladies in high heels from Florida to thank for keeping attention focused on the fate of votes in their state.
 
I'll have more political observations on my return to California. Keep checking back at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com. My next campaign stops are in Charlotte, North Carolina May 4 through 7.
 




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