Some Interesting Presidential Trivia and History

(Danville, California)

 

     I was going to write a serious political column today, but it's sunny here in California; I am recovering from some minor surgery; and I don't feel like being too serious.

 

    So let's do some presidential trivia. First of all, to my Republican friends, history is NOT on John McCain's side this year. Do you know why? Well, he is trying to do something that has been done only twice in American political history.

 

    McCain is trying to succeed a two-term president from his own party.

 

    The last time this happened was exactly 20 years ago, when George H.W. Bush crushed Michael Dukakis to succeed Ronald Reagan's two terms.

 

    Do you know the only other time this happened? Well, dust off your history books, and reach way back to 1836, when Martin Van Buren succeeded Democrat Andrew Jackson's two terms.

 

    So John McCain is trying to do something very difficult. Why so? Well, historically the American people have rarely let one party "run the show" in the White House for too long. Congress has been known to stay with one party for decades, but the White House changes parties often. Maybe it's a restlessness with the status quo, or maybe it's our disinclination towards "royalty" and too much power in too few hands.

 

    By the way, even after Van Buren and Bush succeeded their bosses, they were both voted out after one term. Perhaps that's another indication of the restlessness of the American electorate.

 

    There is only one departure from this in U.S. history and that, of course, was the four-term reign of Franklin Roosevelt, followed by almost two more terms for Harry Truman after FDR's death. So Democrats held the White House 20 years; but this was during the Great Depression and World War II, a time when the country wanted stability. Still, Truman was almost defeated for reelection in 1948 and chose not to run in 1952, even though he could have, as the term limits amendment was not yet in effect .

 

    Even in the postwar era, the electorate was volatile and not in the mood to extend a dynasty. That is why I thought people were crazy to suggest Jeb Bush run this year. His time is down the road, not today.

 

    The lesson for John McCain is that he faces an uphill fight, if history is any indication. Then again, we're still at war; and the public often seeks stability in times of conflict. We'll know in November!

 

    By the way, all three candidates campaigned in the West this weekend, with stops in Oregon, Montana, Idaho and Arizona. I will be at the Oregon primary May 20, Idaho May 27, and perhaps even Montana on June 3, as we wind down the primary season.

 

    Check back often at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com 

 

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