McCain Needs Pennsylvania to be President

(Danville, California)

 

    The other day I blogged about how Barack Obama was expanding his list of "battleground" states from 11 to 18 and about what he needs to do to win the White House in November.

 

    By my analysis, the "big three" battleground states this year are former GOP strongholds which have become much more "middle of the road." They are New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. If Obama wins every state John Kerry won in 2004, plus just one of these, he will be President.

 

    So, let's turn the tables and see what John McCain needs to do if he is to win. Let's assume he wins only two of the states I just mentioned. He must win one state elsewhere (assuming he wins all the other 2004 Bush states). Republicans would be wise to focus on three key states: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. They must win one of these, or Obama is President!

 

    Bush won Ohio last time, but it was close. I would predict a much larger African-American turnout in places such as Cleveland, Cincinnati and Columbus. If that happens, Obama wins Ohio. Michigan has a similar dynamic. Kerry won it in 2004, and if Democrats turn out an even higher number of black voters (who historically don't vote in large numbers), then Obama wins Michigan.

 

    My Analysis:

    Certainly, Pennsylvania has big urban pockets of black voters, especially in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Nevertheless, Obama lost decisively to Hillary Clinton (by 10 percentage points), mainly on the heels of his ridiculous analysis of rural voters as bitter, Bible-thumping, gun-toting hicks. He has a lot of damage control to do. A good many Hillary backers are threatening to vote for McCain. Pennsylvania also has the highest population of military veterans in the United States. Pennsylvania, which keeps reelecting the moderate Republican Arlen Specter to the U.S. Senate, might well swing to the moderate McCain.

 

    My Prediction: If McCain really wants to be President, he will pour as much money and organization as he can into Pennsylvania! If he wins the "Keystone State," he is your next President!

 

    There is a LOT going on in politics these days. Check back often at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.

 

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