Vice-Presidential Battle in Full Swing in Both Parties

(Danville, California)

 

    America Online is running a fascinating poll today, listing 17 potential GOP running mates for John McCain and 18 for Barack Obama. Some of them are long shots, while others are just plain crazy ideas - crazy for reasons I won't go into.

 

    There are, however, some really serious candidates on both sides, so let me evaluate five apiece:

 

Republicans:

 

Charlie Crist-- PLUS: Florida governor could help carry his own state for McCain; MINUS: Not known at all outside his state, although that may not matter if he just wins Florida.

 

Mitt Romney-- PLUS: Brings solid economic, business and executive skills that McCain, by his own admission, is lacking. MINUS: As John Edwards and Al Gore found out, you MUST win your own state to win the White House. Can Romney carry Massachusetts?

 

Condoleezza Rice-- PLUS: Racial and gender balance to counter the Democrats' ticket, plus she's brilliant. MINUS: Too tied to the controversial Iraq War. Can she carry her home state of California? Iffy, at best.

 

Bobby Jindal-- PLUS: A young, ethnic governor from a potential swing state, who has also served in Congress. MINUS: At 36, he's just too young, but a rising star in the GOP. Check back in 2016.

 

Kay Bailey Hutchisoon-- PLUS: A long time, experienced Texas pol, who would strongly appeal to female voters and who is clearly qualified. MINUS: McCain is likely to win Texas anyway, so can she help him in other states? It's a toss-up.

 

Democrats:

 

Hillary Clinton-- PLUS: A lot of people voted for her in a very close race. She can win the anti-Obama women, who feel he took "skips" on her turn. MINUS: Clinton fatigue. She still has strong negatives in polls; and her "loose cannon" husband has been an odd mix of campaign helper and hinderer, depending on what he says on any given day.

 

Bill Richardson-- PLUS: He has all the experience that Obama lacks, with strong appeal to Latinos; and he's from a swing state. MINUS: He betrayed the Clintons; and if he gets picked over Hillary, millions of women voters may just stay home.

 

Claire McCaskill-- PLUS: She could carry Missouri for the ticket (unlike the 2004 election, when John Kerry blew it by not taking Missouri's Dick Gephardt as his VP). You win Missouri, you win the White House. MINUS: Not well known outside of Missouri; has the same lack of foreign policy experience as Obama. Still a possibility, if Hillary says "No."

 

Sam Nunn-- PLUS: An expert on military and foreign affairs who is widely respected in both parties. He might just carry Georgia, and the Democrats only need to win one southern state. MINUS: Young voters who came out heavily for Obama just don't know who he is. It's a generational thing. Also, maybe Nunn can't carry Georgia. It's dicey at best.

 

Ted Strickland-- PLUS: A popular governor of a "must win" state for Democrats who has also served in Congress. MINUS: Aside from Ohio, could he help Obama elsewhere? He was a shoo-in pick if Clinton had won the nomination, because she needed him more than Obama.

 

My Predictions:

 

Hillary Clinton-- I think Obama has no other choice. The potential backlash against him if he does not pick her could be devastating. He needs her to win.

 

Kay Bailey Hutchison-- Although Mitt Romney is the most qualified choice and fills in McCain's "gaps," the gender issue is huge. McCain must counteract the Democrats' ticket if Hillary is on it. More women vote in the U.S. than men, and this will put pressure on McCain.

 

Wild Card:

 

The Democrats must pick first, since they have the first convention. The GOP pick will be a reaction to what they do. As I've said, if Obama picks Clinton, then McCain picks Hutchison. (Same thing if Obama picks McCaskill.) But if Obama picks anyone else, look for McCain to pick Romney.

 

What's your opinion? There is a comment section at the end of each of my blog articles at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.

 

 

 

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