(Danville, California)
There is a fascinating article on Associated Press today from reporter Liz Sidoti. In it she explains how Barack Obama is expanding his fight from 11 so-called battleground states, to 18. I call this risky, because it forces a campaign to spend money on states it might not win, and takes away money from key states it needs to win.
The classic example of this was Al Gore in 2000. He spent so much time and money trying to win Florida (a GOP-leaning state), that he failed to put forth enough time and money in his home state of Tennessee and Bill Clinton's home state of Arkansas. He lost all three and lost the election. Had he won just Arkansas, he would have been President. Obama is risking the very same mistake. Let me dissect this!
The 11 key battleground states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
My Analysis: Focusing on these is wise! These ARE the 11 key states for both parties. A one-state change from the last election could swing the balance.
My prediction: This may come as a surprise to people. My picks for the BIG three are Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. Why? These used to be solid GOP states, but demographics have changed. So many labor union workers from places such as Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin have moved to these states looking for work after factories closed, that Democrats can now complete. The minority populations have grown steadily, too; and that makes these states more "in-play." For example, Al Gore won New Mexico by just 300 votes in 2000; then George W. Bush won it back in a close 2004 race. I believe these three states hold the keys to the White House.
The other 7 states: Alaska, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota and Virginia.My Analysis: Obama could commit political suicide with this wider new focus. He might have a shot in Georgia, but only if he picks former home-state Senator Sam Nunn as his running mate, and even that is no guarantee. Virginia Senator Jim Webb (a former Navy Secretary and former Republican), could help in a similar fashion; but Obama might win Virginia without him. Virginia has become a more politically mixed state, as the metro-DC suburbs are heavily Democratic territory, whereas out-state rural areas remain solidly GOP.
My prediction: Of these seven states, Obama would be wise to compete intensively only in Virginia. Georgia and North Carolina are marginal, and the other four are simply a waste of time and money. Of course, a candidate can't say that publicly because one can offend a lot of voters in the other states.
I will do a similar state-by-state analysis for the McCain campaign in the coming days.
Check in often at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.
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