Mississippi Vote Looms; So Does The Politics of Fairness and Race

(Danville, California)

 

Next stop on he presidential campaign trail is Tuesday in Mississippi, with 33 Democratic delegates on the table. It is fascinating that in the Deep South this year, Barack Obama has done exceedingly well. But a lot has changed since the Civil Rights era of the 1960s.

 

Who'd have thought a Black man would be winning Southern primaries 40 years later, and Northern primaries too for that matter. That Obama can win South Carolina, which is racially mixed, and Iowa, which is predominately White says that most American's are far minded people these days. He's leading in votes among White men, and giving Hillary Clinton a run for her money with all female voters, and beats her in most other demographic groups.

 

Why is that? The answer appears simple. People want to vote for the person they believe is the best candidate, regardless of gender and skin color. It's truly a remarkable transformation in American society, in all corners of this country!

 

So if race and gender aren't big issues anymore, then why do I bring them up? Well, because they could resurface again. At their core, American's debates and struggles with race and gender issues have been about fairness and equal opportunity, the core of our Constitution.

 

What Democrats are facing is the possibility that one candidate may get the most popular votes, but that another candidate receives the most convention delegates. This could happen though un-elected "Super Delegates" or "re-dos" of primaries that were already held.

 

The possible results are ironic, given all the Democratic posturing in 2000 about Al Gore winning the popular vote, but George W. Bush winning the Electoral College (which is what counts). Now the Democrats are facing the same kind of system they attacked (which they re-created within their own party).

 

So what to do? Well, the system is potentially even more volatile. For example, Barack Obama could win the most popular votes; he could win the most primaries and caucuses; and he could lead the national delegate count at the end of the formal primary season.

 

Despite all that he could lose the nomination to Hillary Clinton if Super Delegates and Michigan and Florida "do overs" go her way.

 

That could lead to a Democratic backlash. Black voters (and many White, Latino, Asian, etc. Obama supporters) are bound to cry foul and say the nomination was stolen. The question becomes, will disenfranchised voters return to the fold and support the Democratic nominee (or select-ee) in November?

 

Some might, but many, particularly Blacks may not. Keep in mind that African Americans represent just 10% of the U.S. population, but they vote 92% for Democrats. They are put of the party's core base. So they aren't likely to go running to GOP nominee Sen. John McCain. Instead many disenfranchised African-American voters, feeling the nomination was stolen, may simply stay home. If they do, President McCain may be what the Democratic Party gets for creating such a fractured process.

 

Check back Tuesday, as we will post pictures and results from the Mississippi primary at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.

 

 

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What to Do WIth Florida and Michigan?

(Danville, California)

 

What a treat it is to be sitting at home this Sunday, after being on the campaign trail most of the year. It's sunny, clear and in the 70s in Northern California. What's not so sunny and clear this weekend is what to do with the primary votes for Democrats in Florida and Michigan.

 

Both states were penalized when they disobeyed the orders of the Democratic National Committee and moved their primaries up ahead of February 5 "Super Tuesday."

 

There are a few options out there, but none with unanimous appeal.
Delegates could be apportioned according to the votes already held, but Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) will never go for that, since he was not even on the ballot in Michigan.

 

Option two is a "do-over" primary, either with people going to the polls, or having mail-in ballots. But who pays the bill? Michigan is estimating another primary will cost $8 million, and Florida's governor says his state would have to pay $22 million. Should taxpayers (including Republicans and Independents) be stuck with that bill. Or should the state and national democratic party be forced to pay? National Democrats warned the state parties there would be consequences for breaking the rules. Multiple lawsuits could be coming.

 

It's quite possible the person with the most popular votes, will NOT have the most delegates. Does this sound familiar?

 

Option three would be to not recognize the delegations from either state. But Democrats need those votes in November and an angry backlash could put John McCain (R-AZ) in the White House

 

Michigan has a Democratic governor, Florida a Republican. But in an act of bipartisanship, they issued a joint statement, asking that their delegates be seated:

 

From Govs. Charlie Crist of R-Florida and Jennifer Granholm of D-Michigan:

"The right to vote is at the very foundation of our democracy. This primary season, voters have turned out in record numbers to exercise that right, and it is reprehensible that anyone would seek to silence the voices of 5,163,271 Americans. It is intolerable that the national political parties have denied the citizens of Michigan and Florida their votes and voices at their respective national conventions."

So I am curious what our readers think. At the end of each blog entry, there is a space for people to write in their comments. Tel me what you think we should do with Michigan and Florida, by clicking on the comments page below!

Thanks for choosing www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com

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Barrack Obama Wins Wyoming Caucuses

Sen. Barack Obama, (D-IL) got a much needed comeback win in the Wyoming Caucuses today.

After a tough Tuesday where he lost 3 of 4 primaries, Obama beat Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) today, 59% to 41%. Wyoming only has 12 delegates with 7 likely going for Obama and 5 for Clinton.

As with every other state, there was a record voter turnout in Wyoming.

Obama leads in overall delegates, 1,571-1,462, but Clinton has the edge with superdelegates — the party and leaders — 242-210. A total of 2,025 delegates is needed to be nominated. The next primary is Tuesday in Mississippi where 33 delegates are on the line.
Stay tuned to www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com for the very latest!

Who'd Have Thought? Wyoming and Mississippi Matter!

(Danville, California)

 

The other night in Dallas I was joking with my old friend Carl Camerom from Fox News Channel. He laughed when I asked if he had his plane tickets book for Wyoming this weekend. "I never though the Mississippi Primary would loom so large," I joked back to him.

 

But it's not laughing matter. Two of the traditional "also rans" of the primary season, all of a sudden mean something (though they can't put either Clinton or Obama over the top!).

 

Still there is a lot of interest, where there normally would have been zero. And they keep the candidates on the front page, no matter how few delegates are actually on the line.

 

Saturday they vote in Wyoming, with just 12 delegates at stake. Pollsters put Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) in the lead.

 

Tuesday they vote in Mississippi, with 33 delegates at stake. Political watchers put Sen. Barrack Obama (D-IL) in the lead. Both states distribute delegates on a proportional basis, so the margins may not change much!

 

According to Real Clear Politics, the national count including Super Delegates is:

 

OBAMA:           1,581

CLINTON:         1,460

NOMINATION = 2,025

 

So yes, Wyoming and Mississippi finally matter (truth is they always have in a system where President's keep winning by just one state!).

 

In case you're curious. The final primary is Puerto Rico on June 7, when 55 delegates are up for grabs. Even I will buy a plane ticket for that one!

 

Tune is daily at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com

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Dream Ticket or Disaster Ticket? Democrats Dilemma

 (Pleasanton, California)

 

If you ever want to know what average Americans think of politics, you must get OFF the campaign trail, rather than on it!

 

I've been on the road with the candidates almost all year and just returned home from the Texas primary. Today I had the pleasure of speaking at the luncheon of the Pleasanton Rotary Club and seeing many old friends. I speak to about 20 different Rotary Clubs around the San Francisco Bay Area on a regular basis. I like these folks because they are community leaders from all walks of life, who selflessly give to various charities and good causes, to make their communities and world a better place. They are the backbone of society, "Main Street USA."

 

So a lot of today's questions focused on the campaign, especially who would be the running mates.

 

I shared a theory I have been toying with for weeks because there is so much interest in a "Clinton-Obama" or an "Obama-Clinton" ticket. Would they really run together, especially given some of the nasty barbs back and forth from each campaign?  Here are my theories:

 

"CLINTON-OBAMA" - I don't think she'll pick Obama as VP. Here's why: Assume Clinton wins her home state of New York; Remember she grew up in Illinois, a fairly strong Democratic state (at least in the urban areas), and very much a solid union state. That means she can win Illinois on her own, without Obama's help.  I suspect Hillary Clinton will pick either Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) or Gov. Ted. Strickland (D-OH) as her running mate. Why?  The Democrats only need to take back ONE Republican state from 2004, assuming they win all others they won last time. If she can win New Mexico (which Gore took by 300 votes in 2000), or if she wins in Ohio (where she just won the other night!), she's your next President. She does not need Obama as VP.

 

"OBAMA-CLINTON" - I think he WILL pick Hillary Clinton if he is the nominee. First of all he needs to win New York, and may not be able to do that on his own, especially if John McCain picks Rudy Giuliani as VP. He also needs to pick someone with more experience than he has. (Sen. Joe Biden is another possibility).

But my big reason is party unity. If the Democrats have a civil war, and the nominee emerges fractured they just can't win in November. Obama may need Clinton as a gesture to heal the party. So he needs her, more than she needs him. Now, would she accept? I say YES she would. First of all being VP is the most likely venue to become President. It has a higher likelihood than being Senator or Governor. Second, she could direct the Health Care Reform effort as VP (and perhaps break the tie on close votes). And finally, she is not up for re-election in 2008, so her Senate seat is safe, should the ticket lose.

 

Sen. Clinton nailed the question yesterday when she talked about running together with Obama but said they still "must decide who tops the ticket!"

 

My bet?  It's either "Clinton - TBA" or "Obama-Clinton" as your November ticket!

 

Thanks to the Pleasanton Rotary for a fine lunch at the Pleasanton Hotel and God Bless their work with the international "Wheelchair Foundation." www.wheelchairfoundation.org.  Pleasanton Rotary has a team in Ecuador right now, delivering wheelchairs to those in need!

 

Check back often at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com for more Politics 2008.

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Mark Curtis Day 2 of Covering The Texas Primary on KTVU

So How Does McCain WIn in November?

(Dallas, Texas)

It's a study in contrasts. One party has it's nominee. The other party has perhaps the greatest epic battle of its storied history. Periodically, I have written about "what I'd do if I was in charge?" as I strategize for each side. But in Texas, I spoke with two respected members of the Congressional delegation about what they would do to win in November. Not to worry "fairness fans," we'll do a similar column when the Democrats have a nominee!

Few people know John McCain better than Rep. Sam Johnson (R-TX). That's not just because the two served in Congress together since 1991. You see, the two also served together in a different capacity. McCain and Johnson were fellow Prisoners of War (POWs) in Vietnam. McCain was chained and tortured for 5 1/2 years. Johnson was with him the last year and a half. 46 Americans held together, Johnson told me. I have met and interviewed some of the others over the years. They are remarkable men: Tom Moe, Orson Swindle and former Rep. Pete Peterson (D-FL), American heroes, all of them. Few know McCain's character better. He says that should be emphasized in the fall campaign.

"Man I tell you it's great. He'll be a super President," Johnson said after McCain's victory speech in Dallas Tuesday night.

But how does being a POW translate into being Commander-in-Chief? "Well its a challenge, not the kind you get every day," Rep. Johnson told me. "He came through the thing with flying colors. Nothing prepares you for that. He's a real patriot." As we shook hands and said good-bye, the Congressman grabbed my shoulder too assure me this is not just about McCain's military service. "He's fiscally sound!" Johnson told me. They want to make sure wary conservatives are onboard. Many don't trust the moderate Arizona Senator.

As for November, and a possible Obama-McCain showdown, Texas Congressman Pete Session told me Tuesday night the GOP is ready. "We've got a candidate who can run a 50 state race," Sessions told me. "Name one 'Red' state Obama wins?" he asked.

It's a fair question. But as Hillary Clinton said in her victory speech Tuesday night, "As Ohio goes, so goes the nation." She knows her history. Winning Ohio has almost always meant winning the White House in modern politics. The most recent case being 2004, when it was the "one" state that provided George W. Bush the margin for re-election.

Please tell your friends about www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com. We are the ONLY full-time "one man band" on the Presidential campaign trail. We are doing "All Points Media!" That means one person doing TV, radio, Newspaper, Internet and blog, all at once!

This week I did have help! My daughter Allie, an aspiring TV journalist and Internet photographer served as my assistant in Texas. GREAT JOB Allie! She's now a big fan of that Southern fast-food treat known as "Whataburger!" Ok, I promise to try to be a better role model!

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McCain Seals GOP Nomination; Democrats Deadlocked

(Dallas, Texas)

Sen. John McCain, the fire-brand GOP maverick who often upsets the "apple cart" in his own party, will be the Republican nominee for President in 2008.

McCain who needed to secure 1,191 delegates, has four more than that tonight. He went over the top, by winning in all four states holding primaries today, Vermont, Rhode Island, Ohio and finally Texas.
The outcome was unlikely just three months ago, with McCain out of money and well down "in the weeds" according to most political pollsters. An improbable comeback wind in New Hampshire, breathed new life into his campaign, after he finished fourth in Iowa.

Tonight McCain walked out on stage to the music of "Eye of the Tiger" the sane song Rocky Balboa used in his comeback victory over Mr. T in Rocky III. He thanked his final challenger, former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) who earlier tonight dropped out of the race and gave McCain his backing. "We stayed in the race until it was over," Huckabee said. "We kept the faith!" he said to a cheering crowd.

McCain was humbled by the nomination. "I owe my country every opportunity I ever had," said the former Vietnam War P.O.W. who was held prisoner and tortured over five years.

Without naming names, he clearly took a few swipes at his two reaming Democratic opponents, who are deadlocked tonight. In a reference to the Democrats intra-party squabble over NAFTA, the highly criticized trade deal, McCain said, "I'll leave it to my opponents to abrogate trade treaties." And in an obvious swipe at Barack Obama, known for his lofty and inspiring speeches, McCain said the Democrats offer "platitudes instead of principles."

The crowd was pelted with balloons and confetti as John and Cindy McCain shook people's hands as the victory music blared!
The Democrats meantime were locked in a knock-down drag-out fight. Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) won in Vermont, but had lost a tiny lead in Texas. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) won Rhode Island and won a close race in Ohio. Clinton no doubt, will claim a big comeback victory, and it appears warranted just when Obama had her on the ropes.

She did well enough to keep pace and stay in the race. Why? Exit polls showed that "late deciders" went 66% for Clinton and 34% for Obama. That means TV ads wondering "who" could handle a 3 a.m. crisis call at the White House helped her cause, and hurt his.

Union households, where her support recently eroded, went 56% for Clinton to 33% for Obama. That means many union members are clearly concerned about recent attacks on Obama as being "weak" on the NAFTA trade deal, and perhaps unwilling to amend it to help unions.

In her victory speech from Ohio, Sen. Clinton said to her supporters that they "who work hard and never give up. This one's for you!" She went on to say, "This nation is coming back and so is this campaign." The crowd went wild!

In his concession speech from San Antonio, Sen. Barack Obama downplayed his losses. "We have nearly the same delegate lead we had this morning and we are on the way to winning this nomination," he said. He was right on the delegate count, but may be wrong about the momentum.

Since no knock out punch was scored tonight, the Democratic contest marches on with the next big primary six weeks away in heavily unionized Pennsylvania. Wyoming and Mississippi have smaller primaries in the next week that are now assured of getting huge national attention.

Tonight Republicans were happy about that. They could unify and plan strategy for November, while Democrats brace for what could be a bruising and very expensive fight to a potentially brokered convention in August.

I will be "live" from Dallas on KTVU's "Mornings on Two" with Ross McGowan Wednesday morning at 7:45.

Also tomorrow, an all-new blog entry. I interviewed two Texas Congressmen tonight (one of whom was a P.O.W. with John McCain). Hear their views and strategy tomorrow at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

Mark Curtis Talks With KGO Radio

KGO Radio

Polls Open In Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island

(Dallas, Texas)

 

Cold weather and even snow greeted voters in Texas this morning, as polls opened in the largest state of up for grabs today in the Presidential race. Rain in Ohio could be a factor as well, with a chill in New England's Vermont and Rhode Island. Even in sunny Dallas, some cars had an inch or two snow covering from overnight.

 

Nothing is dampening the enthusiasm though. Texas already had 1.2 million voters even before today and a record turnout is predicted here and in the other states.

 

We have a weird voting "quirk" here today, called the "Texas Two-Step." Democrats can vote twice! First they vote in today's primary, and that will select about two-thirds of the convention delegates. Then tonight, Democrats return to their polling place for a party caucus. That will select the final one-third of the delegates, but we may not know the final results of that election until June 7. And we could have a "Florida 2000" situation, where one candidate gets more popular votes and the other candidate gets more delegates. This could get ugly down the road! Former President Bill Clinton has joked, "Texas is the only place you can vote twice in the same day without getting arrested!"

 

Republicans just have a Texas primary and its possible John McCain could reach the 1,191 delegate count tonight, that he needs to "officially" secure the GOP nomination. I will be at his victory party tonight at the Dallas Fairmont Hotel.

 

Today after my "live" broadcast to KTVU from downtown Dallas, I felt compelled to visit the assassination site of President John F. Kennedy, which happened almost 45 years ago. I took my daughter and Internet Producer Allie Curtis to Dealey Plaza, the Texas School Book Depository and the famed "grassy knoll."  An "X" painted on Elm Street still marks where the presidential limousine was, when the fatal bullet struck.

 

It was absolutely chilling! This is the most fascinating and contentious presidential election since that fateful day, and it is ironic to see Dallas playing such a huge role again on the presidential stage. I was 4 1/2 years old when JFK was killed, but despite that young age the memory of that week is forever seared in my mind. Let us hope and pray as a nation that no matter who we select this year, we never have to endure such a tragedy again.

 

My daughter Allie and I will be covering the McCain rally in Dallas tonight. And I will be "live" on KTVU's "Mornings on Two" with Ross McGowan, at 7:45 Wednesday morning.

 

Check in at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com for updates. Tell your friends too!

 

 

 

 

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Mark Curtis Covering The Texas Primary and Caucus on KTVU

Obama's Election Eve Left Turn

(Carrollton, Texas)

 

People have been waiting for Sen. Barrack Obama (D-IL) to make a mistake, on an otherwise nearly perfect campaign. Today may have been it!

 

Tonight on the eve of a razor tight race in Texas and Ohio, Obama appeared before a crowd, that by-in-large won't be able to vote Tuesday. The popular Senator had a 5 p.m. "town hall meeting" at Newman Smith High School, 20 miles north of Dallas in the suburb of Carrollton.

 

Senior Emmanuel Ayala introduced Obama, and excitedly announced he would vote for the first term U.S. Senator tomorrow. "The old ways of doing it just don't cut it anymore," Ayala said to cheers. But plenty of freshman, sophomores and juniors won't be old enough. Among the press corps tonight, it begged the question: "Why campaign here?" Every state poll has the Clinton-Obama race in a dead heat on election eve.

 

But Obama has confounded conventional wisdom before, so why not this time?

 

To be sure, his appeal to this group is undeniable. They like his message. They like his optimism and hope. He spoke about the war; the economy and education, three issues these students care about, whether they can vote or not.

 

While he has championed getting out of Iraq, he was more realistic to these students: "I don't think we'll be able to be completely out in a year," Obama said.

 

He promised to pull out some troops as soon as he takes office, then about 1 or 2 brigades per month. All told it could take two years. Plus there would have to be diplomacy with all sides, to try to make the fragile Iraqi government last. No magic bullet here.

 

Among the loudest cheers came when Obama promised a $4,000 annual college tuition tax credit to help pay for education. At the other end of the school spectrum, he proposes universal pre-school. And in the middle there would be more after-school programs for at-risk kids, and more drop out prevention for high schoolers. No where was there a road map to pay for it.

 

"We've got to have high standards in our schools. Especially in the area of math and science, " he said to cheers. "One thing that we know works is after school programs for kids. And summer school programs for kids," Obama added. No one raised a hand to object. No funding plan was laid out.

 

It's the kind of scrutiny Obama is likely to face and soon, especially if he if the nominee. You can lay out all sorts of feel good programs, but someone, somewhere will have to pay the bill. That will likely be these kids. High schoolers now, the working class in another decade, but today a group that largely can't vote yes or no.

 

The closest Obama got to a specific was this: "All this stuff is going to cost something," he said, "but it's a worthy investment if we are going to keep our economy competitive."

 

His most controversial statement on the economy dealt with immigration reform (or the lack of it). You can almost see the words being used against him in fall campaign ads if he is the nominee:

 

"We have to work with people in Columbia and Mexico and others in central America," Obama said. "We've got to give better economic opportunity to the people there."  Boosting their economies at home, will make it less attractive to come here illegally. Critics will argue it's more important to help the U.S. economy, right here on U.S. soil first.

 

As for the 12 million already in the U.S. illegally??

 

"The notion that we are going to send 12 million people back, is just not true."  Obama says it can't be done with law enforcement, so there has to be a plan to transition them to legal status.

 

In Texas, a border state, the immigration controversy is a huge issue, and Obama's comments now could well be called into serious question in the fall campaign.

 

So Obama concluded tonight by encouraging these young high schoolers to be agents of change this year, perhaps influencing their parents, even if the students themselves can't vote.

"Your voice matters. You can have an impact," The Illinois Democrat said.  "Change always happens in this country, when young people act."

 

Polls open at 7 a.m. and there could be bad weather to deal with including snow!  Join me "live" from Dallas at 7:45 a.m. on KTVU's "Mornings on Two" with Ross McGowan.

 

As always, check in daily at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.
There were some great campaign photos again today, from my loyal assistant Allie Curtis.

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Hucks Army Storms SMU Campus

(Dallas, Texas)

 

If this was a race about sincerity, Mike Huckabee would win hands down.
Hundreds of people carrying signs saying "I Like Mike" show up at his rallies, and you quickly understand why. If you could vote for who would be your next door neighbor, you'd vote Huckabee.

 

The former Arkansas governor held a campaign rally this morning at SMU, Southern Methodist University. His college age supporters known as "Huck's Army" were there in force. A couple hundred turned out, which is impressive for 8 a.m. on a college campus.

 

Huckabee talked on a host of issues, but it's his economic proposal that gets the attention. he wants to eliminate the IRS and implement a system called "The Fair Tax." There would be no income tax, instead a national sales tax on goods and services would fund the country and everyone would pay.

 

"It's not going to be easy when the economy punishes you for hard work," said Huckabee. He was speaking about people who are penalized when forced to work two jobs, because the second income pushes them into a higher tax bracket.

 

Huckabee also talked of social issues and received perhaps the warmest cheers when he said he was the only true pro-life candidate left in the presidential race. He hopes if he wins Texas, he can block Sen. John McCain from the GOP nomination, and pick up the former supporters of fellow conservative Mitt Romney. It's a tall order, even for Texas.

 

As always, Huckabee was accompanied by his biggest celebrity supporter, actor Chuck Norris and his wife. Norris also spoke of the nation's economic troubles. "If we don't turn this around, we're going to be in a lot of trouble here," Norris said.  He and Huckabee warned of problems stemming from a 9 trillion dollar national debt.

 

Afterwards, Norris posed for pictures with people in the crowd, including my daughter-turned campaign photographer Allie Curtis who is helping me cover the presidential race this week.

 

It's a very rainy day in Texas. Next we head to Carrollton, to cover a Barack Obama rally this afternoon.

 

Check back at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com for the latest!

 

 

 

 

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Bill Clinton Goes Full Throttle for Hillary

(Wichita Falls, Texas)

Final Weekend Polls are Tight!

(Moraga, California)