Dream Ticket or Disaster Ticket? Democrats Dilemma

 (Pleasanton, California)

 

If you ever want to know what average Americans think of politics, you must get OFF the campaign trail, rather than on it!

 

I've been on the road with the candidates almost all year and just returned home from the Texas primary. Today I had the pleasure of speaking at the luncheon of the Pleasanton Rotary Club and seeing many old friends. I speak to about 20 different Rotary Clubs around the San Francisco Bay Area on a regular basis. I like these folks because they are community leaders from all walks of life, who selflessly give to various charities and good causes, to make their communities and world a better place. They are the backbone of society, "Main Street USA."

 

So a lot of today's questions focused on the campaign, especially who would be the running mates.

 

I shared a theory I have been toying with for weeks because there is so much interest in a "Clinton-Obama" or an "Obama-Clinton" ticket. Would they really run together, especially given some of the nasty barbs back and forth from each campaign?  Here are my theories:

 

"CLINTON-OBAMA" - I don't think she'll pick Obama as VP. Here's why: Assume Clinton wins her home state of New York; Remember she grew up in Illinois, a fairly strong Democratic state (at least in the urban areas), and very much a solid union state. That means she can win Illinois on her own, without Obama's help.  I suspect Hillary Clinton will pick either Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) or Gov. Ted. Strickland (D-OH) as her running mate. Why?  The Democrats only need to take back ONE Republican state from 2004, assuming they win all others they won last time. If she can win New Mexico (which Gore took by 300 votes in 2000), or if she wins in Ohio (where she just won the other night!), she's your next President. She does not need Obama as VP.

 

"OBAMA-CLINTON" - I think he WILL pick Hillary Clinton if he is the nominee. First of all he needs to win New York, and may not be able to do that on his own, especially if John McCain picks Rudy Giuliani as VP. He also needs to pick someone with more experience than he has. (Sen. Joe Biden is another possibility).

But my big reason is party unity. If the Democrats have a civil war, and the nominee emerges fractured they just can't win in November. Obama may need Clinton as a gesture to heal the party. So he needs her, more than she needs him. Now, would she accept? I say YES she would. First of all being VP is the most likely venue to become President. It has a higher likelihood than being Senator or Governor. Second, she could direct the Health Care Reform effort as VP (and perhaps break the tie on close votes). And finally, she is not up for re-election in 2008, so her Senate seat is safe, should the ticket lose.

 

Sen. Clinton nailed the question yesterday when she talked about running together with Obama but said they still "must decide who tops the ticket!"

 

My bet?  It's either "Clinton - TBA" or "Obama-Clinton" as your November ticket!

 

Thanks to the Pleasanton Rotary for a fine lunch at the Pleasanton Hotel and God Bless their work with the international "Wheelchair Foundation." www.wheelchairfoundation.org.  Pleasanton Rotary has a team in Ecuador right now, delivering wheelchairs to those in need!

 

Check back often at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com for more Politics 2008.

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