(Charleston, West Virginia)
I love polls; I hate polls!
They can be a road map to what is about to happen; and they can be incredibly wrong. In 1983, the night before the Chicago mayor's race, polls showed Richard Daley, Jr., and Jane Byrne way ahead of an obscure black Congressman from Chicago named Harold Washington. Washington won (as I predicted at the time, saying that polls inadvertently undersurvey minorities).
In New Hampshire, 2008, one poll had Barack Obama up 17 points fresh off his win in Iowa five days earlier. Hillary Clinton won, going away. So, polls indicating a 30- to 40-point Clinton lead for Tuesday in West Virginia make me suspicious. We'll see!
With the candidates out of town tonight, I stopped by their respective state campaign headquarters in Charleston. Both were busy with activity and last-minute phone banks and door-to-door canvassing!Obama spokesman Tom Bowen was not giving any quarter, based on the polls. "It's a clear choice," Bowen said. "Senator Obama or four more years of Bush's policies."
Hard at work canvassing door to door today was Obama supporter Ahmed Mongi. Ahmed just became a U.S. citizen on April 7, after immigrating here from Tanzania in 1983. "I came here to get an education," Mongi said. "I'm a college grad of West Virginia University." Why did he choose Obama for his first vote as an American? "The message of hope resonates with me," Mongi says. "The fact that he is new in Washington means he has a better chance of changing business." Mongi's big issue concerns are ending the war in Iraq and providing better health care for veterans. All that aside, he just plain likes Obama: "I think he's got charisma," Mongi says.
About five blocks away at Clinton headquarters in downtown Charleston, it is just as busy, as volunteers and staff work phone banks, urging people to get out the vote.
Organizer Cory Waldron is just 20 years old and is taking time off from college to work on the Clinton campaign. "She has intelligent, well-thought-out policies," Waldron says. "Obviously, she has a true concern about the middle class and the state of our nation," he adds, "and I truly believe she is a once-in-a-lifetime candidate.It occurs to me that now age 20, Waldron was just four years old when Clinton's husband was elected President. Does he even remember? "For some reason I remember the saxophone (Bill Clinton played) on Arsenio Hall," he says. I tell Cory that I was four years old when John Kennedy was killed and remember it pretty well. Even at age four, the political junkie thing can start!
I ask Waldron whether the staff is supporting Hillary for VP yet, should she fall short of the nomination. "We're not entertaining that possibility right now," he said. "We're still playing to win!"
Echoing that thought is Clinton volunteer Angela Reed, from Fayette County, West Virginia. She says Clinton has much more experience than Obama, and that is what truly matters. "I believe she's qualified. She can take care of our problems," Reed said. "It's (experience) a big factor," she adds. "I think she's a good problem solver. I think she has particular experience in foreign policy. I don't think Obama has that," Reed adds.Polls in West Virginia open at 6:30 a.m. I will be "live" at 7:45 with Ross McGowan on KTVU's "Mornings on Two." Keep it on www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.
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