Saturday, May 31, 2008

Get Out Your Calculators!

(Danville, California)
 
    Not long ago, I bought two new household calculators from the office supply store. Today I needed them. The long-awaited decision by the Democratic National Committee regarding the disputed delegates from Florida and Michigan is in. It's a bit complicated, but follow along! All the numbers have changed:
 
Needed to Nominate:    2,118
 
Total Now Including Florida & Michigan:
 
Obama:   2,052
Clinton:   1,877.5
 
How Many Short?
 
Obama:  66
Clinton:  240.5
 
Up for Grabs This Week:
 
Puerto Rico:         55
South Dakota:      15
Montana:             16
 
   
This week should be a split, with Clinton winning Puerto Rico Sunday, but Obama taking South Dakota and Montana on Tuesday. Obama will be just a bit short, but more Super Delegates will come forward; and by Tuesday night, when he addresses the crowd in St. Paul, I predict he will have enough delegates to capture the nomination.
 
    So what happens to Hillary Clinton? As I have predicted for weeks, she will be the "reluctant" VP choice. It will be a "shotgun marriage," as he doesn't like her and she doesn't like him. But they need each other if the Democrats are to beat John McCain in November. The Democrats just "surrendered" Florida to the GOP Saturday, with the DNC vote. Michigan remains up for grabs, but it is a "must win" for Democrats in November. Plenty of Michiganders and Floridians feel downright abandoned by the DNC vote Saturday, so there will be a backlash.`
 
    The fight may not be over this week either. Clinton strategist and high-powered lawyer Harold Ickes, Jr., is threatening a floor fight at the August convention in Denver or legal action. Ickes angrily informed the party's Rules Committee that Clinton had instructed him to reserve her right to appeal the matter to the Democrats' Credentials Committee, which could potentially drag the matter to the party's convention in August.

    "There's been a lot of talk about party unity: Let's all come together and put our arms around each other," said Ickes, who is also a member of the Rules Committee that approved the deal. "I submit to you, ladies and gentlemen, hijacking four delegates ... is not a good way to start down the path of party unity."
 
   
All in all, the race for the White House is wide open, and I predict another one-state margin, just as we had in 2000 (Florida) and in 2004 (Ohio). As of now, I predict this year's deciding state will be......Colorado or New Mexico!
 
    I will be in South Dakota and Montana on Sunday and will be there until Wednesday. Check in often at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.
 
(Associated Press contributed to this report)
 
 




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