Today I predict the Republican nomination will NOT be sewn up on Super Tuesday but will have to wait until the following week, with the primaries in DC, Virginia and Maryland on Tuesday February 12th.
Even that is dicey, depending on how well the other candidates fare. The GOP could also be decided on February 19, with the Democrats...or stretch to March 4th, when Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island vote. A lot depends on whether former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) stays in the race, or drops out.
Here's why! Keep in mind Republicans need 1,191 delegates for the nomination. As of today it's: McCain 93; Romney 59; Huckabee 40. There are 1,004 delegates up for grabs Super Tuesday, and even if he won them all, McCain would still be just shy of the nomination.
MCCAIN leads in the following states with delegate counts: Alabama (48); Arizona (53); California (173); Connecticut (30); Delaware (18); Illinois (70); Minnesota (41); New Jersey (52); New York (101); Oklahoma (41); Tennessee (55). Total delegates = 682.
ROMNEY leads in: Colorado (46); Massachusetts (43) Utah (29). Total delegates = 118.
HUCKABEE leads in: Arkansas (34); Georgia (72); Missouri (58). Total = 164.
Several of the GOP primaries are "winner take all" as was the case in Florida. If McCain wins all those states where he now leads, that's 202 more delegates. Even he takes half the remaining proportional delegates, that's roughly another 400, putting him at a grand total of approximately 700 after Super Tuesday.
The key is, MOST states divide there delegates on a proportional basis, or by Congressional district. So, If McCain wins with 45% and Romney gets 42% (or Huckabee), they will be very close in total delegates!
I know, its a LOT of math, but as I always say, "politics is as much about math as it is about ideology!"
Check in all weekend at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com., even during the Super Bowl!
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