Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Is Tuesday the End? Or the Beginning of 'Obama-Clinton '08?'
(Danville, California)
For weeks I have been suggesting the end of the Democratic race for President would be Tuesday April 22, in Pennsylvania. Mostly, it was an issue of doing the math? Or is it?
Recent developments suggest THIS Tuesday, may be D-Day. Let's just score last night's latest Clinton-Obama debate as a tie. She needed to throw a knock-out punch, or he needed to stumble and fall. Neither happened. Instead they keep trying to "out nice" each other. 
Oddly enough, I think we may see the makings of an "Obama-Clinton" ticket, even though I thought (and still do) that a "Clinton-Obama" ticket would never happen. More on that later.
Oddly enough, I think we may see the makings of an "Obama-Clinton" ticket, even though I thought (and still do) that a "Clinton-Obama" ticket would never happen. More on that later.
What the candidates face now, is an issue of momentum. Obama has it, Clinton does not. I thought if she won 3 of the 4 contests this Tuesday, she'd be on a road to comeback. Right now polls have her leading in Ohio and Rhode Island, with Obama leading in Texas (barely) and in Vermont. A 2-2 split, will all but equally divide the delegates giving Clinton no traction.
In the interest of party unity, she might just concede after Tuesday, even though Obama still won't have the delegates needed.
I say this because of a major defection in her campaign today. Rep. John Lewis (D-GA), a civil rights era icon and one of the longest serving Black Members of Congress has switched his allegiance. Lewis had endorsed Clinton, but is switching to Obama. He is also one of the party's so-called "Super Delegates."
If someone of Lewis's stature can defect, then the floodgates may open.
An early Clinton concession to the nomination could mean a lot. It could restore party unity versus a blood bath, and it just might get her the #2 spot on the ticket. I know, I know, most people think I'm crazy. But the Democrats need to win New York state, and she could deliver. Also, she is not up for re-election this year, so her Senate seat is safe, should the ticket lose. In an odd sense, Obama needs her, more than she needed him. And they don't have to like each other, they just need to strike a balance (think JKF-LBJ).
The most important reason of all, is that the Vice-presidency is still the best road to the White House. (It is NOT the U.S. Senate or the Governor's mansion as many believe).
In the past 60 years, the VP job paved the way for Truman, Nixon, Johnson, Ford and Bush #1. Those are pretty fair odds. But even if she never rises above VP, she still makes the history books as the first female.
Obama could make her the "point person" on health care reform, and she'd be much more credible than in 1992. As for Bill Clinton, it won't be 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, but the Naval Observatory isn't a bad spot to live in Washington, DC.
I will be in Texas, Sunday through Wednesday, watching it all play out.
Check in at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.
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