Wisconsin and Hawaii Primaries by the Numbers

Next stop on the Presidential Primary trail? Wisconsin and Hawaii!

 

Many people are asking me, "Why are you going to Wisconsin, if you could have gone to Hawaii?"

 

Well for one, I grew up in Wisconsin so I can see my family and friends. And Barack Obama grew up in Hawaii, and will probably win by a slam dunk, so there is not much drama there. Still Mai-Tais in Maui sounded pretty tempting to me!

 

But the main reason I am going to Wisconsin, is that we have a real tight race there on the Democratic side. It's so close it has the potential to turn the tide as we head to the big prizes of Texas and Ohio in two weeks! So Wisconsin is the best spot to watch Hillary Clinton to launch her comeback, if she can!

 

Here are the latest numbers from the Real Clear Politics composite poll (an average of several recent polls):

 

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)   46%

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)   42%

Undecided                   12%

 

So, once again we may have a race decided by last minute, undecided voters. With 74 delegates on the line in Wisconsin, and 20 in Hawaii, Hillary Clinton can't catch up to Obama yet, but she can certainly close the gap with a solid day at the polls.
By tightening the race in Wisconsin, she could pass Obama with strong wins in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont on March 4.

 

Delegate totals right now:  Obama 1,301; Clinton 1,235; Needed to nominate: 2,025.

 

On the GOP side, the only question that remains is, "When will John McCain have enough delegates to be the nominee?"  The answer is NOT this week! 
Wisconsin has 40 GOP delegates, and Hawaii has 20. Even if he wins them all, and you count the 291 delegates "donated" by Mitt Romney, McCain is just short.

 

So, look for John McCain to go over the top and pass the 1,191 delegates needed for the GOP nomination on March 4. The Democrats will have to wait a bit longer for their nominee!

 

I will be "on the ground" in Wisconsin following the campaigns as of Sunday. I will update primary results all week from the Badger State!

 

Check in often at: www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com

 

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