Obama and Pastor: Did They Orchestrate This?

(Danville, California)

 

    Last night I was on the Brian Sussman show on KSFO-AM 560, the conservative talk radio station in the San Francisco Bay Area. The debate was about whether the Rev. Jeremiah Wright was now trying to "sink" the campaign of his former church member, Sen. Barrack Obama (D-IL).

 

    I suggested a different theory: That perhaps Obama's campaign and Wright's supporters were secretly coordinating their strategy. A later caller said I was crazier than the Pastor himself!  But hear me out! Again, it's just a theory, but it would not surprise me!

 

Premise: Many critics feel Barack Obama did not distance himself enough from Rev. Wright during his race relations speech in Philadelphia when the controversy first surfaced. The issue continued to simmer on talk radio and on the internet, but largely faded in the rest of the media.

 

Profile: They suddenly raised the profile of Rev. Wright again. First night, he's on Bill Moyers on PBS; second night, he's speaking at the NAACP dinner in Detroit, "live" on many networks; third day, he's hosting a news conference at the National Press Club in DC. Suddenly, Rev. Wright is on every front page and on every TV network. Suddenly, he's big news again!

 

Purpose: On Tuesday, Obama publicly condemns and severs all remaining ties with Rev. Wright. To his supporters (and, ideally, to his detractors), Obama has now done the "right" thing (pardon the pun). The political "execution" of Rev. Wright is very loud and very public, for all to see. And they pick the craziest issue of all to slay the dragon: That the U.S. government created and spread AIDS to destroy the black population.

 

Coincidence? I think not!  As I said on the radio last night, sometimes what you see on the political stage is purely political theatre! I know it sounds cynical folks, but I have been covering politics for thirty years, and such a secretly "coordinated" scenario would not surprise me at all. By the way, I think the Clinton campaign has been pushing the Rev. Wright story, not the McCain camp.

 

No, I am not some conspiracy nut! I am a political analyst who knows political tactics and strategy well.

 

I bet if someone subpoenaed cell phone records of certain public officials, they might find some calls to and from Rev. Wright's camp!

 

I will be in Charlotte as of Sunday, covering the North Carolina and Indiana primaries (and perhaps searching for "Bigfoot" and a "grassy knoll" for my theories!). Hey! It's media politics. I have to poke fun at myself too!

 

Keep it on www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com

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Clinton Could be Helped by Endorsement

(Danville, California)

 

Sen. Hillary Clinton received a big, last-minute boost today. Gov. Mike Easley (D-NC) endorsed Clinton in next week's North Carolina primary.

 

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) has been leading polls in North Carolina by as much as 16 points, but this endorsement could help close the gap.

 

Clinton and Obama are locked in a much closer race in Indiana, where various polls have each one in the lead. It's very tight!

 

Stay tuned to www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com for the very latest!

 

I will be in North Carolina as of Sunday, to cover next week's vote!

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Democrats Should Not Quit

(Danville, California)

 

Did anyone hear another scream?  This morning on a couple of network TV news programs Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean said one of the Democratic presidential candidates should quit in June.

 

He did not recommend a "quitter," but he did say it should take place after the final primaries are over on June 3.

 

"We want the voters to have their say. That's over on June 3," Dean said in an interview on ABC's "Good Morning America."

 

Over? Hmmm... I thought many of the "Super Delegates" actually represented the voters? And what about November? Who gets the say then? Voters should keep raising their voices, even after the balloting. I've said this before and will say it again: Americans like fighters, not quitters! This is why John McCain has such great appeal!

 

I believe Howard Dean is way off base here, and his comment is symptomatic of the problems within the Democratic Party. The "Super Delegate" system was set up by party elders to "correct a mistake" if voters made one and selected a nominee who could not possibly win. Does anyone still believe in the will of the people?

 

If we are truly a democracy, then party leaders just need to let this "play out" by itself, even if that means a brokered convention in Denver in late August. Dean disagrees with me: "We really can't have a divided convention. If we do, it's going to be very hard to heal the party afterwards," Dean said. "So we'll know who the nominee is and that'll give us an extra 2 1/2 months to get our party together, heal the wounds of having a very closely divided race, and take on Senator McCain."

 

The Party has 2 1/2 months to heal and move on. We could still see a joint "Obama-Clinton" or "Clinton-Obama" ticket! So let them do the democratic thing and let the process go ahead. We could use a little excitement in Denver, even if it's another "I Have a Scream!" speech like the one candidate Dean gave in Iowa in 2004.

 

I will be in Charlotte next week for the North Carolina primary. Please check in daily at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.

 

(Portions of this report are courtesy of the Associated Press).

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King Solomon May Solve Florida and Michigan Dispute

(Danville, California)

 

A unique study is underway to try to solve the long-standing dispute over the fate of Florida's and Michigan's Democratic National Convention delegates. You'll recall that both states "leap frogged" the party rules and held primaries before a nationally imposed starting date. As punishment, the DNC (Democratic National Committee) will not seat either state's delegations.

 

A DNC Committee has scheduled a hearing for May 31 in hopes of resolving the issue. Here is what's at stake:

 

Florida: 210 total delegates; 185 pledged delegates; 25 "Super Delegates."

 

Michigan: 156 total delegates; 128 pledged delegates; 28 "Super Delegates."

 

The plan being discussed could eventually seat the delegations, but each individual's vote would count as only a "half vote."

 

Whom would it help?

 

Hillary Clinton: This would narrow the delegate gap between her and Barack Obama, but not by as much as she had hoped. (She won both primaries.) She still would not have enough delegates to win the nomination outright. She still needs the "Super Delegates."

 

Barack Obama: It helps him in Michigan, where he was not even on the ballot. So he might win 40 percent of those delegates. He remains in the overall delegate lead and maintains "front-runner" status, but by a narrower margin. Like Clinton, he may need the "Super Delegate" support, pledged before, or at, the convention to pull this out.

 

PLEASE e-mail your thoughts on the Florida and Michigan "1/2 delegate" proposal. I will publish as many as I can. E-mail me at Mark@MarkCurtisMedia.com.

 

For the latest political news, check in daily at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.

 

I will be in Charlotte next week reporting on the North Carolina and Indiana primaries!

 

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May Race in Indiana Is Not the 500

(Danville, California)

 

It's great to be back in California after my trip to the Pennsylvania primary. Now the campaign plot thickens. The big May race in Indianapolis is NOT the "500" this year. Instead, it is the May 6 race for the Democratic nomination in Indiana. North Carolina holds a primary that day, too; but Barack Obama is way out in front there!

 

Indiana is now the race to watch. The Obama lead there has shrunk to essentially nothing. The latest Research 2000 poll has it 48 percent for Obama, 47 percent for Clinton. Once again, the 5 percent undecided voters will decide this race. In Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the undecided vote swung to Hillary Clinton in huge numbers during the last week before the primaries. It could happen again in Indiana!

 

Indiana is similar to Ohio and Pennsylvania in that its industrial-manufacturing base has been decimated. And farming is still a tough way to make a living. Hillary Clinton does very well among disaffected blue-collar workers, and that could pay off for her in the Hoosier state. It has to do so. If she loses both primaries on May 6, the race for the nomination is basically over.

 

I will be in Charlotte, N.C., next week for the North Carolina primary. Check in often at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.

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Don't Forget Florida and Michigan

(Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)

 

There is a lot to remember about this year's Pennsylvania primary and what it may mean to the nomination process. It was a fun and exciting week. One of the lasting impressions I will have is that of the three ladies I met from an interesting web site: www.hireheels.com. They make no bones about it; they are backing Sen. Hillary Clinton for President.

 

The most fascinating thing about them is that they came all the way from Florida to Philadelphia - on their own dime - to make their case. They are all but certain the plight of their fellow Florida voters (and Michigan's) is being lost in the process.

 

Leading the charge is Diane Mantouvalos of Miami. She and her cohorts are lobbying the Democratic National Committee and its chairman, Howard Dean, to seat a slate of delegates from Florida.

"When it comes to seating Florida and Michigan, it is clouding his (Dean's) judgement," Mantouvalos said. "I'm not even a Democrat," she adds. "I'm an independent."

 

She feels the media focus has been on the closeness of the race and on the back-and-forth victories of Obama and Clinton. Lost in the process is the fact that the votes and delegates of two of the largest states are not even being counted. "Everyone is consumed by the margin," Mantouvalos said.

 

The great untold media story of Tuesday night is that Hillary Clinton has now surged ahead in the popular vote if you include Florida and Michigan votes in the count.  Clinton's net gain in Pennsylvania was 215,000 votes, which is far greater than the number of delegates she picked up, when compared to Barack Obama.

 

Clinton has a popular vote lead of 122,000 if you count both Florida and Michigan, according to RealClearPolitics.com. Without those two states, Obama still leads nationally by 500,000 votes. If she does well enough in the remaining states, Clinton could wipe out that lead, too.

 

The big problem for the national Democratic Party is that it is becoming victim of the very type of system it attacked in 2000. Yes, Al Gore had more popular votes than George W. Bush, but Bush had the most Electoral Votes (the ones that really count). In this case you need the most delegates to win, but the popular vote may more accurately reflect the "will of the people."

 

If Hillary Clinton winds up in the lead with popular votes, that may swing enough undecided Super Delegates her way to win the nomination. As many of her supporters now say, it's about who has the best chance for beating John McCain in November, not about who won the most individual state primaries.

 

If Clinton does win the nomination, she has a bunch of ladies in high heels from Florida to thank for keeping attention focused on the fate of votes in their state.

 

I'll have more political observations on my return to California. Keep checking back at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com. My next campaign stops are in Charlotte, North Carolina May 4 through 7.

 

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Clinton's Final Strategy

(Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)

Let's be clear on this: Hillary Clinton still faces an uphill fight for the Democratic nomination. In many respects, it's Barack Obama's race to lose, and he can lose. But for now, he's in the driver's seat with the most delegates, the most primary and caucus wins and the most popular votes.

So how does Hillary Clinton win? At her victory rally on Tuesday night, I spoke with two people who are key players on the Clinton campaign. First is Ann Lewis, a long-time Democratic operative and former White House Communications Director under Bill Clinton. She is also the sister of Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA).

Lewis says keeping the momentum alive is key for Clinton, and after winning Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, Clinton has the momentum on her side. Lewis said, "Our strategy is simple. She’s the candidate that can win in November. We've just got to get out there and prove it.” Democrats must win Pennsylvania in November (and they usually do), to win the White House. But the Keystone state has a large number of independents and blue-collar Democrats who sometimes cross over, as they did in 1980, 1984 and 1988, handing the state to Ronald Reagan twice and to George H.W. Bush. John McCain says he will launch an aggressive fight to win Pennsylvania.

Ann Lewis also told me that Hillary Clinton must win at least one state on May 6, as North Carolina and Indiana hold primaries. The latest polls have Obama ahead in North Carolina by 16 points, but Clinton ahead in Indiana by 3 points. The Hoosier state appears to be the crucial battleground for Clinton.

Helping Clinton win in Indiana is going to fall on the shoulders of the Ohio Congresswoman who helped her win in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones is a firebrand speaker who just electrifies the crowds. Tubbs-Jones told me, "My philosophy is we just take these one state at a time. I will be campaigning with President Clinton in North Carolina," she said. "Then I'm going to Indiana," Tubbs-Jones added. She personifies the fact that Clinton is still popular among African Americans, especially women. She can help Clinton carry enough of the black vote to win Indiana.

All of these items fall into Clinton's main strategy: Win enough of the remaining states and delegates, so that you appear to be surging and turning the tide of political momentum in your favor. The big, overall message being: "I am actually the candidate who can win in November!" That will be very powerful to those still undecided "Super Delegates" that she needs to win the nomination.

The other thing to watch here is the popular vote. Obama leads Clinton by about 500,000 votes. She gained on him by over 200,000 just in Pennsylvania alone. So it's possible Clinton can win the popular vote (especially if you count the currently disqualified votes from Florida and Michigan).

Hillary and Bill Clinton have been political underdogs many times in their careers and have a penchant for "pulling the rabbit out of a hat" at the last minute.
Obama still leads this race, but don't be too surprised if she pulls off a last minute upset.

Check in daily for new columns at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com

Mark Curtis Discusses Clinton's Winning Strategy

"Forget 'Rocky'; Clinton Relives Basketball Legend"

(Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)

 

    OK! Enough already with the theme from "Rocky!" If I hear it one more time, I may vomit! Look, it's a great song with a great message, but in this city it's a cliche'. Hillary Clinton's campaign rally ended with it last night at Penn and opened tonight's victory rally at the Park Hyatt.

 

    That's OK! Rocky was the underdog who fought back to become a champ! But, folks, college basketball is the better metaphor here. With all due respect to Coach K, Dean Smith, John Wooden, and even my beloved Al McGuire, there is one college coach whom I will admire more than the rest until the day I die.

 

    The late Jimmy Valvano at North Carolina State used to scream at his players until he was hoarse: "Don't give up! Don't ever give up." Valvano not only used that theme to take an underdog team to a national championship, but he also used it in his valiant fight against cancer.

 

    So tonight in the ballroom, as Hillary Clinton took the stage, I heard Valvano echo in my mind, and not Sylvester Stallone. Stallone was a movie; Jimmy V. was the "real deal." The New York Senator said, "The American people don't quit, and they deserve a president who doesn't quit." The crowd erupted.

 

    This is Sen. Clinton's best pitch at this point: a) The momentum is swinging her way; b) she can win in November; and C) she can fight like hell!

 

    It should also be noted the depth of some of her support.


Lydia Sanchez was here tonight from San Antonio, Texas. Sanchez is a longtime Clinton supporter and may be one of the few people in America who has the autographs of Bill, Hillary and Chelsea Clinton, all on one hat.

 

    The Latino vote has been strong for Clinton, another argument she makes as the better November candidate. As Sanchez said, "She understands much about Latinos. We think she's going to be able to do something for us!"  Sanchez described to me her three priorities as 1) health insurance 2) new education for kids, and 3) better worker benefits.

 

    Those wishes also went over with the union crowd and the senior citizens. Those are  two of the biggest groups responsible for the Clinton victory tonight - a win of 55 to 45, which was downright impressive. Exit polls indicate Sen. Clinton won 60 percent of voters who made up their minds in the past week. Once again, when the "undecideds" decide, it can make a huge difference.

 

 

    I had some great interviews in Pennsylvania with former White House Communications Director Ann Lewis and with Cleveland Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones, two key players in the Clinton campaign. Tomorrow my blog will focus on their theories about how to win the nomination for Hillary Clinton.

 

    It's all at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.

 

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Barack Obama Post-Pennsylvania Primary Speech

Hillary Clinton PA Victory Speech

"Polls Crowded in Pennsylvania"

(Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)

 

            In a scene that has played out all across the nation, Pennsylvania had a record turnout for the presidential primary today.
All day voters streamed into the historic Reformed Church, at 4^th and Race Street, not far from the Liberty Bell.

                        

            Opinions were easy to come by. At "The Fork" restaurant, one of the city's most popular, Lura Reisman was holding forth at the bar, toasting with an optimistic glass of champagne. She had gotten up early and voted for Barack Obama.

 

            Reisman is a lifelong Philadelphian and Democrat. She started college in 1944; but because of World War II she did not graduate until 1953. She's an admitted news and political junkie. She compares the excitement of this race to 1960, when Sen. John F. Kennedy narrowly beat Vice President Richard Nixon.  The year 2008 has something in common with 1960, she says, "Because it has the young people interested. Finally the young people are getting off their butts." 

 

She remembers the voting age dropping in the early 1970s, but youth voting waned after Vietnam as well. "They were more interested in lowering the drinking age," she said of college students back then.

 

            Reisman says that she sees a lot of Kennedy in Obama. "I hope that he remains as he is now," Reisman said, "and doesn't get corrupted by politics."  As for President Kennedy, Reisman said he had a similar trait to Obama when it came to public speaking. "Kennedy made you feel good. He was an optimist," Reisman added.

 

            The great news for food junkies as well as political junkies is that "The Fork" restaurant is still here. I found it back in 2000 during the Republican National Convention in Philadelphia. Great food and great political chat. If you are ever in Philly, check it out at 306 Market Street w:st="on">306 Market Street.

 

            Wednesday morning I will be "live" on KTVUs "Mornings on 2" with a complete wrap-up on the Pennsylvania primary.

 

            As always, check in at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Mark Curtis Talks With KGO Radio From Pennsylvania

KGO Radio

Mark Curtis Talks To KTVU From Pennsylvania

Clinton's Not Even Close to Giving Up

(Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)

Wow! What a Monday night in Philadelphia! I have been on the campaign trail since January 2, and I don't think I've seen anything like I saw tonight. If Hillary Clinton ultimately loses this nomination, let it be said that at least she went down swinging.

The stage was packed tonight, including Bill and Chelsea Clinton and a couple of local members of Congress. But then there were Gov. Ed Rendell(D-PA) and Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter. Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones, the African-American Congresswoman from Cleveland, who single-handedly helped Clinton over the top in Ohio, was here, too, as was Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX). In short, it was the Democratic Party All-Star Team. Almost everyone gave a speech filled with testimonials to Sen. Clinton that rocked the house. The most charming (and I think she was serious) was when Chelsea Clinton explained why her mom will be a better president than her dad!

But perhaps the bigger issue was who was in attendance. A crowd of about 10,000 packed the Palestra, the arena where the University of Pennsylvania plays. The audience featured hundreds of people in union T-shirts; hundreds of senior citizens; and, at least to the naked eye, a huge number of African-American voters, particularly black women.

Sen. Clinton needs all of these groups if she is not only to win here, but also to carry on in her campaign. As in Ohio, unions and seniors are huge, influential voting blocks.

I spoke with several audience members about why they were still backing Clinton, as she remains behind Barack Obama. “Personally, for me it’s health care,” said Aubry, 19. “I am a cancer survivor.” He said. “I am in remission.”

Aubry (shown on right) was diagnosed with lymphoma at 16, but the local hospital in New Hampshire did not have a pediatric cancer clinic. “When it came time to go to the hospital, it didn’t have a kid one” (pediatric unit) Aubry explained.

“Thank God I had a teacher in middle school who knew people at NYU (medical center), pulled some strings, and got me in.” He wants Clinton’s brand of health care reform because “the average person doesn’t have the strings,” he said.

An interesting couple I met was Mindy and Alan Jeter, an interracial family with two small boys. They are standing by Mrs. Clinton. “Because she’s the best choice," said Mindy Jeter, “She’s what the country needs right now. She has the experience.”
The Jeters have very little interest in a joint Clinton-Obama ticket. “I’ll only support that if she is at the top of the ticket,” said Allen Jeter, who has little interest in Obama.

That brings us to a very perilous part of this campaign. A study of Pennsylvania voters by "USA Today" says 26 percent of Clinton voters will support Sen. John McCain if Obama wins the Democratic nomination. And 19 percent of Obama supporters also say they'll jump parties and support McCain if Hillary Clinton surges to the nomination. This new division represents a huge problem for the Democrats in November.

Right now, polls in Pennsylvania predict Clinton will win, even though Obama has spent $11 million on advertising, twice as much as the New York Senator.

But you'd never know that tonight. The crowd repeatedly chanted: "Hillary, Hillary!" and the building shook. You can't imagine she's the underdog, on the ropes. She never mentioned Barack Obama by name, but she did mock one of his campaign's signature lines: "It's not enough to say 'yes we can!' We need to say how we can," said Sen. Clinton.

And Bill Clinton may have said it best. He stumped this audience for thirty minutes, stalling for time, as his wife's plane was late to Philadelphia. (Can you name a politician who can ad-lib better than the ex-president?) Anyway, Clinton did not mention Obama by name either, but certainly challenged Obama's supporters when he said, "If someone tells you you can't win, it's because they are scared that you can."

The Clinton family has made a dynasty while proving people and pundits wrong. Tuesday in Pennsylvania could be another such occasion.

Polls open here at 7 a.m. I will be on "live" with Ross McGowan on KTVU's "Mornings on Two" at 7:45 a.m. Pacific Time, as well as on with Ronn Owens at 9 a.m. on KGO-AM 810.

Check in often at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com

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Hillary Clinton Must Win Pennsylvania; or It's Over

(Los Angeles, California)

I am in Los Angeles today. There have been a number of political rallies for both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama today. Of course, the big news is in Pennsylvania, which holds the next big primary on Tuesday. The latest polls show Clinton with a 47 to 42 percent lead over Obama. She must win even by the smallest of majorities to remain in this race.

There was some good news for Clinton today. A poll of undecided super delegates, conducted by the Associated Press, shows over half of them leaning her way. The most important issue for the undecided super delegates, according to the AP, is which Democratic candidate can win the November election. Right now, most feel Clinton has a better chance.

I will be reporting from Philadelphia Monday through Wednesday. Check in often at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.

Cabinet Slamming Shut on Clintons

(Berkeley, California)

 

    He may have been the tiniest of the Clinton Cabinet ( at 4 ft., 10 in.), but today he threw one of the hardest punches against his old boss and his wife. Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich endorsed Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination for President.

 

   
Reich,, who is a longtime friend and advisor to both Bill and Hillary Clinton, now teaches economics at the University of California-Berkeley.

 

    This is a repeat act for the Clintons, and it likely gets more painful. Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), who served in two Clinton cabinet posts, endorsed Obama on Good Friday. That prompted some close Clinton advisors to refer to Richardson as "Judas" from the Bible. Ouch!

 

    The Clintons not only face the issue of likability; they face the issue of loyalty. Former Clinton cabinet secretaries Bill Dailey, Norm Minetta, and Federico Pena had already joined Reich and Richardson in the Obama camp. Today, former Democratic Senators David Boren and Sam Nunn joined them. Double ouch!

 

    On his blog, Reich said: "My avoidance of offering a formal endorsement until now has also been affected by the pull of old friendships and my reluctance as a teacher and commentator to be openly partisan. But my conscience won't let me be silent any longer.
I believe that Barack Obama should be elected President of the United States."

 

    Reich said he was upset by the negative tone of the campaign, especially on the Clinton side. On KCBS radio this afternoon Reich said, "To tell you the truth I got so frustrated the past week with the negative advertising coming out of Hillary Clinton's campaign, particularly the pick up on the word that Obama used to describe people in Pennsylvania as bitter. The whole resurrection of the guns and religion issues."

 

   
Now wait just a minute. Isn't Bob Reich defending the use of stereotypes by Barack Obama? And isn't Reich making things worse by perpetuating a stereotype of rural Americans as people who cling to guns and God?

 

    The Obama campaign has lambasted anyone who has suggested the Illinois Senator is "articulate" or "cleans up well." Those are stereotypes of blacks who advance in society, and they are offensive. But suggesting rural whites cling to their religion and guns in hard times is an offensive stereotype, too. Neither notion has any place in this campaign.

 

    Regardless of what Robert Reich says, Hillary Clinton had every right (and even obligation) to challenge the simplistic stereotypes offered up by Obama. What the candidates say and stand for is fair game in the press; and it is fair game for the other candidates to challenge.

 

    As NBC's Chris Matthews says, "This is 'hardball'" politics!

 

    I will be in Philadelphia starting Monday to cover the Pennsylvania primary. It's all on www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

 

 

   

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The Vice Presidential Prom

(Danville, California)

 

    I spoke a lot about the content of Wednesday night's Pennsylvania debate in yesterday's posting, but there was so much, we never got to talk about the weird discussion of running mates. Oh, heck! It's worthy of a column all by itself.

 

    I vaguely remember a kid in high school, who was pressured by his dad to take the girl-next-door to the junior prom. She was a homely wallflower with two left feet, so the story went. And, were it not for a wave of neighborly pity, she never would have gone to the dance in the first place.

 

    I have no idea how it turned out. I simply chose to skip the dance with a handful of good friends, and we went to drink beer on the beach at Lake Michigan. For all we know, the odd couple had a great time. At least they got to dance!

 

    Which brings me to the "Clinton-Obama Prom." They contorted themselves every which way the other night, trying to dodge the "pick me" question! They looked like two people trying to pass through a phone booth together without bumping one another. It was painful to watch. You know my feelings on this: Obama should ask her, and she should say yes! And vice versa, if she is the nominee.

 

    They spent much of the debate avoiding eye contact, let alone trying not to look at each other at all.

 

    When moderator Charles Gibson asked the running-mate question, there was a long pregnant pause. "Don't all speak at once," Gibson chided; and the crowd erupted in laughter. It was the best line of the night!

 

    Would she pick Obama? "We will certainly do what is necessary to make sure that a Democrat is in the White House next January," Said Sen. Clinton. Chalk it up as a non-answer.

 

    Would he pick Clinton? "I'm confident that both Sen. Clinton's supporters and Sen. Obama's Supporters will be there supporting the Democratic nominee when we start engaging in that general election," Obama said. Chalk it up as another non-answer.

 

    So we still don't know. They even acted like this was high school, unable to look each other in the eye for the awkward "will-you-dance-with-me" question, and the even more painfully awkward "what-if-she-(or he)-rejects-me" answer.

 

    The problem here is that we are not electing the high school class president. We are electing the President of the United States. But in doing the latter, we are acting like the former.

 

    I just hope the winner can be a bit more candid and pointed with another world leader when we face a real crisis. As a nation, we need to get beyond all the high school anxiety!

 

    My dance card is filling up as I head to Philadelphia Monday to cover the Pennsylvania primary!  Log in at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com

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It's Better to Take a Punch Than to Throw a Punch

(Danville, California)

 

    I was jealous. The two Democratic candidates for president were in Philadelphia tonight. I won't be there until Monday. Oh well, such is the nature of scheduling in a political campaign. But, as I watched the debate, I wished I had a front-row seat.

 

    OK, it's the city where the "Rocky" movies became legend, so I will skip the overdone sports analogies, except for this bit of philosophy: "It is better to take a punch, than to throw a punch." Or, in Biblical terms, it is better (though not easier) to turn the other cheek.

 

    On that point alone, Sen. Barack Obama wins tonight's debate. He is, after all, ahead in the race. It's much like my advice to the Republicans in 2000. "You are ahead in the votes, so act like you've won." It's a simple, but subtle, rule of thumb in politics. "Look like a winner, and people will think you're a winner!"

 

    In the weeks since the Texas and Ohio primaries, Obama has committed two major political missteps: He did not quickly disconnect from his controversial pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and he has failed to reconnect with the rural voters he simplistically called "bitter!"

 

    In both cases, he was "tin eared" and out of touch. In fact, he was so off the mark it could cost him the White House. That said, it would have been easy for him to get defensive in the latest debate and to start swinging wildly at Sen. Clinton. Obama resisted the temptation tonight, and that tells us he has enormous qualities of patience and perseverance.

 

    It must have been so tempting to swing back against Sen. Hillary Clinton! I mean, those missing Rose Law firm billing records just magically reappeared in the White House one day? Man! I got religion, too! Talk about "manna from Heaven!" But that's ancient history, and who remembers? The shelf life of a news story is three days, about the same as that of a loaf of fresh bread. Oh well!

 

    So, instead of calling rural voters "bitter" tonight, Obama tried to clarify. "What I've also been struck by," he said, "is the frustration. They don't feel like they're being listened to!"

 

    Which so begs the question: "Do you want to be listened to if you're being spoken to in a condescending voice?"

 

    But it was hard for Senator Clinton to make the argument. She and her husband made over $100 million dollars in the new century.  It's hard for them to paint themselves as the "everyday, every man" that was so successful for them in 1992 and 1996. Gone are the days!

 

    Senator Clinton simply had the better speech tonight, because Obama's latest mistakes were indefensible. She said, "There is a lot of concern across Pennsylvania and America. People do feel as though their government is not solving problems, that it is not standing up for them!" she added.

 

    So she wins the fight on points; but he wins the fight on patience. He could have lashed back, but he's the front runner; and you have to maintain a certain level of dignity and decorum. Ironic, but that's how George W. Bush "won the hearts and minds" in December of 2000.

 

    If you're in the lead, stay above the fray!

 

    I'll be in the fray, beginning Monday in Pennsylvania. Check in at www.MarkCurtis.blogspot.com

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McCain Puts Economic Plan on the Table

(Danville, California)

 

    Sen. John McCain shocked a lot of people a few weeks back when he admitted that economics are not his strong suit - that his strengths are military and foreign policy. Now his confession about his weakness in the area of economics may be true, but it's odd for a politician to make such a confession publicly. This may be true especially as the nation teeters on the edge of a recession.

   

    Undaunted, McCain has now released parts of his economic plan. He did it in Pittsburgh, which is surprising too! Pennsylvania holds its primary next Tuesday, and it is a state that has been among the hardest hit during the current economic downturn (as well as the "rusting" of the nation's industrial heartland these past thirty years). In other words, McCain was risking a lot of criticism in the riskiest of all places. We'll see how he and his plans fare.

 

    In the meantime, here are some highlights of his plan and their possible political consequences.

 

    1) FREEZE the Federal Gas Tax:  This is bound to be criticized as a political gimmick. The eighteen-cent tax would not be collected from Memorial Day to Labor Day this year. Tourists will love this, but communities waiting for new roads or highway projects may have to wait still longer, as this tax is a key funding source. Democrats in Congress aren't known to be tax cutters. We'll see whether McCain's idea lives or dies on the Senate floor. Prospects: Dicey at best.

 

    2) ELIMINATE the Alternative Minimum Tax: This idea is popular in both parties. The tax was originally intended to make sure the very wealthy would pay federal taxes. Now, many families in the $150,000 income range are being hit hard, and this group is no longer part of America's wealthiest. Elimination of the Alternative Minimum Tax has bipartisan appeal, but probably won't happen until this time next year, way after the election. Besides, how do you replace the revenue? Prospects: Promising, but a long wait.

 

    3) CUT corporate taxes from 35 percent to 25 percent: This is a classic Republican vs. Democratic fight. The GOP always insists that companies will pour their tax savings into research and development, creating new products and jobs. Democrats argue that big business gives big bonuses to high-paid executives and shares little with the rank and file worker. Prospects: A very tough sell when the price of gasoline nears $4 a gallon, yet oil companies are making multibillion dollar profits!

 

    Senator McCain's best prospects lie in two other areas: Making the Bush tax cuts permanent and cutting Congressional spending. Many economists now agree the tax cuts helped, especially after the 2001 recession. They may help stimulate the economy again, as people spend the money. But McCain has always railed against Congress for wasteful spending and politically charged "earmarks" on unrelated bills. The Congressional Budget is often like a year-round Christmas tree, with people on both sides of the aisle lavishing their districts with expensive projects. To rein in federal spending, McCain (or his opponents) must put an end to these earmarks!

 

    I will be in Pennsylvania next week for the primary! Check back often at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com

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The Reasons Why Hillary Clinton Should Accept VP Slot

(Danville, California)

 

    Just for the fun of it, let's assume the Democratic nomination is decided, and Barack Obama has won. Assuming he offers the VP slot to Sen. Hillary Clinton, here are three reasons why she should accept:

 

    ONE: Being Vice President is the best way to become President. Fourteen of our 42 presidents previously served as VP. That is exactly one-third. Those are very good odds. Five vice-presidents were directly elected to the top job; four moved up after their predecessors died from natural causes; four advanced because of assassinations, and one was promoted due to a resignation. So as much as everyone belittles the role of Vice President and some of those who have served, it is still the most viable way to become the "big boss."

 

    TWO: The Democrats gain one vote in the Senate. Remember, the VP is also President of the Senate. If an Obama-Clinton ticket wins, the Governors of Illinois and New York must appoint replacement senators. Since both governors are Democrats, those seats will be safe. Even if there is a tie vote in the Senate, the VP votes to break the tie. This could mean the decisive vote on a budget or a Supreme Court nominee.

 

    THREE: The role of VP has finally risen to prominence as that of a policy maker. Dick Cheney may be the most powerful VP ever, but a few of his predecessors were very influential, including Al Gore, George H.W. Bush and Walter Mondale. So, as Al Gore focused on the environment and telecommunications policy and helped steer significant legislation on both, a VP Clinton might have her strongest forum yet for steering health care reform. And just in case there is a Senate tie, she gets to vote.

 

   
There are other bonuses too. The Clintons would live at the Naval Observatory on the northwest side of Washington, DC, near the National Zoo. It's pretty swanky! It also gives Bill Clinton a nice base of operations for all his endeavors. Plus, she makes history as the first female VP, and it solidifies a family dynasty.

 

    Yes, the Clintons will have to swallow a little pride and eat a little crow, but a unity ticket (Forget the silly phrase "dream team," because the relations between the two camps are more of a "nightmare!"), might be the only ticket the Democrats can ride into the White House.

 

    I see no downside to Hillary Clinton's taking the number two slot. If the ticket ultimately loses, she and Obama still retain their Senate seats, as neither is up for reelection this year. They can run for the White House again in 2012, as a single McCain term would be a real possibility.

 

    So take the second slot if it's offered Sen. Clinton. It just might be your "ticket" to a lot of better places!

 

    I will be in Philadelphia for the Pennsylvania primary, which takes place one week from today.

 

    Keep it dialed into www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com

 

   

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Thousands Vote for California Delegates

(Lafayette, California)

 

    Thousands of California Democrats turned out Sunday to vote for delegates to the Democratic National Convention in August. While so much attention has focused on the "Super Delegates," little attention has been paid to the process of selecting the rank-and-file delegates.

 

    That's what people were voting for on Sunday. Statewide they were electing 134 delegates for Sen. Hillary Clinton and 107 for Sen. Barack Obama, based on the results of the February 5 primary.

 

    The Clinton caucus for the 10th Congressional District was held at the Veterans Building in Lafayette. Outside, potential delegates lobbied voters. Some paired up and ran as a ticket. Longtime party activists Robert Camacho and Kath Delaney decided to run as a team for two of the three Clinton delegate slots:

 

      "I've raised thousands of dollars. I've made calls every day," Delaney said. "My support of Sen. Clinton is unwavering. I'll do everything to get her in the White House," she added.

 

    It was Hillary Clinton who suggested that no delegates be committed to any one candidate. They may vote any way they want when they get to the convention in Denver; but delegate candidate Camacho said he will not budge. "The only person who could get me to change my vote is Hillary Clinton," Camacho said. The team approach worked. Camacho and Delaney were elected delegates.

 

    A unique approach was taken by prospective delegate Dave Seaborg (shown here on the left). He believes he can persuade more Super Delegates to vote for Clinton. "I have more connections to Super Delegates than anyone running," Seaborg said. "I have the best shot of getting (undecided) Super Delegates to vote for Hillary." His pitch worked; Seaborg was elected!

 

     A few miles away in Walnut Creek, supporters of Sen. Barack Obama gathered at the Jewish Community Center to elect their delegates.

 

    Ki Ingersol hopes to be an Obama delegate. "I've been supporting him since 2003, when he was running for Senate," Ingersol said.

 

    Also running for one of the two Obama delegate slots was Madeline Yanov (shown on the right), who was lobbying for votes with her husband and daughter. Yanov quit the Democratic Party fifteen years ago after becoming disillusioned by its direction. She was an Independent until Obama came along. "Here was a person who could bring hope and change," Yanov said. "This is a person who can take back the country and make me proud to be an American again," she added.

 

    Everyone we spoke with Sunday said they had never seen anything like the turnout. Normally delegate selection is a mundane party responsibility, seldom covered by the press. But this year, in a razor thin race between Obama and Clinton, the voter turnout and the public attention were unprecedented. Ken Richards and Kathy Klein were chosen as the Obama delegates from District 10.

 

    Next week I will be reporting from the Pennsylvania Primary in Philadelphia. Until then, keep checking for updates at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com.

 

   

 

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Sen. Obama Channels President Carter - Day 2

(Danville, California)

 

    Well, it's Sunday; and the TV talk shows are in full bloom, talking about Barack Obama's comments on why "bitter" rural Americans won't vote for him.

 

   
Those comments were made at what was supposed to be a private (closed to the press) fundraiser in San Francisco last Sunday.

 

    Now, NBC's "Meet the Press" has dug up some more comments from that same fundraiser - comments which may prove even more troublesome for Obama. When asked about his pick for Vice President, Obama suggested (and I am paraphrasing here) that he does not have to pick someone who has strong military or foreign policy credentials. Obama went on to say that he considers foreign policy one of his strengths, greater than that of Sen. Hillary Clinton or Sen. John McCain.

 

    Wow! Now that claim not only flies in the face of conventional wisdom, it's also a contradiction of the candidates' resumes.

 

    Barack Obama was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1996. Other than that, he has no discernible foreign policy experience. Sens. Clinton and McCain, on the other hand, have many more years of experience in international relations.

 

    So why would Obama make such a claim? Well, it is important that a candidate evaluate his or her own strengths and weaknesses. For example, McCain has stated publicly that economic issues are his shortcoming. That's pretty brave as the nation teeters on the brink of recession. On the other hand. Obama is making a claim that has no basis in fact, other than through his own personal self-assessment.

 

   Jimmy Carter took a similar stance in 1976, claiming he had enough foreign policy experience to lead the nation. Still, he took the far more experienced Sen. Walter Mondale to be his running mate. In the opinion of many politicos and pundits, it was the right choice.

 

   The Carter Presidency had a wide-ranging record on foreign affairs. It had the high of the Camp David summit that brought peace between Israel and Egypt, and it had the low of the Iran hostage crisis that crippled the Carter White House and helped spell its end.

 

   On Friday I wrote of the potential VP choice of former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-NE) in a pairing with Obama. Kerrey, a war hero and longtime politician, would give Obama a great balanced, experienced ticket. The fact that Obama might shun that for his own foreign policy "chops" is odd.

 

  As I've said, a political self-assessment needs to focus on strengths and weaknesses. Obama's greatest strength is his oratory skill and his ability to inspire audiences. His great professional achievement was as a community organizer in Chicago. That experience is reflected in the phenomenal organization of his current campaign and its ability to raise money. Being a community organizer has also given Obama a window to the most economically disadvantaged in society and those who need the most from government. That is also a big plus for him.  Politics is a "from the ground up," "grass roots" business. That's Obama's strong foundation, and he should stick to it.

 

   In baseball, there is an old saying when you get in trouble - "Go with your best pitch!"

Sen. Obama should do that if he truly wants this nomination; and - in the process - he should not delude himself that he has more experience than his two remaining opponents.

 

   California Democrats are voting on their slate of convention delegates this afternoon. I will be out talking with the candidates and voters and will have a full report later on www.MarkCurtis.blogspot.com.

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Mark Curtis Talks With KGO Radio

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Barack Obama Channels Jimmy Carter

(Danville, California)

 

    Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) is being pelted from both ends of the political spectrum these days for remarks he recently made about rural voters in America, while at a campaign rally in San Francisco.

 

   
According to the Huffington Post, Obama told Bay Area supporters: "You go into these small towns in Pennsylvania and, like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years.... And it's not surprising then they get bitter. They cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."

 

    Obama has been widely criticized for these remarks by his challenger, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-IL), and by the GOP nominee, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).

 

    At a rally in Pennsylvania Mrs. Clinton said, "Pennsylvanians don't need a president who looks down on them. They need a president who stands up for them."

    McCain's campaign described Obama's comments as "condescending" and "out of touch."

    I'll let Obama's comments stand for themselves. So, too, for the candidates responses.

    But this whole controversy takes me back to the late 1970s and a famous (and disastrous) speech by then President Jimmy Carter. It has been labeled over the years as the "malaise speech." It was received by the public with a giant thud; and Carter was voted out of office in a landslide:

    "I want to talk to you right now about a fundamental threat to American democracy.... I do not refer to the outward strength of America, a nation that is at peace tonight everywhere in the world, with unmatched economic power and military might," Carter said.

    "The threat is nearly invisible in ordinary ways. It is a crisis of confidence," he continued. "It is a crisis that strikes at the very heart and soul and spirit of our national will. We can see this crisis in the growing doubt about the meaning of our own lives and in the loss of a unity of purpose for our nation."  

    The problem with the Carter and Obama speeches is not whether they are right or wrong; it's whether they project optimism or pessimism in their leadership style. The tone of a speech can be as critical as the substance, sometimes more so. When FDR said "We have nothing to fear, but fear itself," people believed him. We won a war and overcame a depression. People want to hear about hope - not despair.

    One of the qualities that attracted people to John F. Kennedy was his sense of calling America to a higher mission. Putting a man on the moon did not have to be science fiction, it could be reality. People loved Ronald Reagan's optimism. It was "morning in America," and this nation was the "shining city on a hill." The idea was that America's best days were ahead of her, not in the past. And, in his first inaugural address, Bill Clinton said, "There's nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by all that's right with America."  Like Reagan and Kennedy before him, he believed in the country's "can do" spirit.

    That's what people want to hear. And in many respects they have been hearing it this year from Barack Obama. His message of hope and optimism, especially in the face of adversity, is why he is out front today.

    His odd "left turn" to try and psychoanalyze the motives of rural voters is odd and potentially self-destructive if he keeps it up.

    I will be in Philadelphia from April 21 to 23 reporting on the crucial Pennsylvania primary.

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