Monday, April 7, 2008

Clinton Campaign May Be Nearing an End

(Danville, California)
 
    Two weeks from today I catch a plane to Philadelphia for the Pennsylvania primary. I am beginning to wonder whether it matters. Recent missteps by the Clinton campaign make it appear that the campaign may not have "the legs" to make it to the final primaries on June 3.
 
    Top strategist Mark Penn was let go over the weekend, after a conflict of interest involving a foreign client erupted. What was he thinking? The ethical lapse was big enough to drive a truck through! Then ABC News reported another story where the candidate "embellished" the truth, ala her arrival in Bosnia under gunfire, which we know never happened. This time it was an Ohio mom who had no health insurance dying in childbirth. Turns out she was fully insured.
 
    Is that last bit of misinformation the candidate's fault? No. The candidates have staffers to verify stories they tell on the campaign trail, and someone didn't do the homework.
 
    It just makes Senator Clinton look bad at a time when she doesn't need the bad press. She must win the next several key primaries, or it's over.
 
    
That brings me to another faux pas, at least in my book. She campaigned in Oregon over the weekend and needs to win that state's primary on May 20. But her main theme there was to lobby for the controversial primary votes in Michigan and Florida to be counted. Yes, that is crucial to her overall chances of winning, but I would have spent more time in Oregon wooing voters on issues that Oregonians care about. Complaining about the potential "bad call" by an umpire in a "game" that happened three months ago is a waste of time. (Bill Clinton and other party elders need to be working that issue.)
 
    The next contest is Pennsylvania, and the trend is not good in the polls. Shortly after the Texas and Ohio victories a month ago, it was Clinton 53% to Obama 35% in Pennsylvania, with 12% undecided. Today's "Insider Advantage" poll posted on Real Clear Politics has it Clinton 45% to Obama 42%, with 13% still uncertain. Wow!
 
    Clinton cannot afford to lose Pennsylvania; and - while she's at it - she needs to win North Carolina on May 6. Otherwise, it's hard to make her case in remaining states such as Oregon, Indiana, West Virginia and even Puerto Rico. A big sweep of those states  would make her case to count Michigan and Florida all the more compelling.
 
    Another "Super Delegate" is up for grabs in California tomorrow! We'll explain why the "Special Election" here could tip the delegate balance by just one vote.
 
    Check in on Tuesday April 8 at www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com
 




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