Watch for Two Blowouts on Tuesday!

(Danville, California)

 

    The Democratic primary season has been more like a boxing match; and, with that in mind, I am predicting another dramatic split decision in the Tuesday primaries. Hillary Clinton should win big in Kentucky (after her 41 point win in neighboring West Virginia last week). Barack Obama should win Oregon going away. All told, there are 102 delegates at stake.

 

    Here are the latest composite polls from Real Clear Politics:

 

Kentucky:

 

Clinton:   59 %

Obama:  30 %

Undecided:  11 %

 

Oregon:

 

Obama:  53 %

Clinton:   39  %

Undecided:  8 %

 

National & Super Delegate Totals (2,025 needed):

 

Obama:  1,897

Clinton:   1,717

 

    Some conclusions are already clear: Obama will need fewer than 100 delegates after Tuesday; Hillary Clinton needs a favorable ruling on the fate of the Florida and Michigan delegations, or there is no way she can win.

 

    By Wednesday morning Obama should be at the 1,950 delegate mark, plus or minus a few more Super Delegates swinging his way. This will set the stage for a final showdown on June 3, with the South Dakota and Montana primaries and a total of 31 delegates at stake. We should have a nominee by Wednesday morning, June 4, so I will be in Rapid City,South Dakota, for all of that drama.

 

    In the meantime, I will be in Oregon this week, Monday through Wednesday, covering the latest primaries.

 

    Last Night I had the honor of being "emcee" for the annual "Guns 'n Hoses" charity basketball game to benefit Special Olympics of Northern California. For the second straight year, the Fremont Police Department defeated the Fremont Fire Department. The real winners were all the Special Olympians who benefit. If you want to help go to www.sonc.org.

 

    Check back often at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

 

 

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