Saturday, February 2, 2008

Do Endorsements Matter?


Members of the Kennedy family are fanning out across the Super Tuesday states, campaigning for Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL). (A few have endorsed Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), but the big names, Teddy, Caroline and Patrick are Obama backers).

The "Los Angeles Times" has endorsed Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) for their repective nominations.

The question is, does anyone care?

Endorsements have always been a tricky thing. I've seen cases where there is a backlash. In 1988, virtually all candidates and initiatives backed by the "Pensacola News-Joural" lost. If you have a public that dislikes the press, it can have a "how dare you tell me how to vote"? effect.

The thing to remember with newspaper endorsements, is they often come when the vast majority of voters have already made up their minds. So their sway with independent voters is iffy at best. But if a large group is undecided on election day, newspaper and celebrity endorsements have the potential for greater impact.

On the other hand, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) standing with, and endorsing George W. Bush for re-election in Ohio back in 2004, may have provided the winning votes in a very tight race.

Now how can that be? Arnold could not deliver California for Bush, so why Ohio? We'll it seems 30 years ago, the famed actor started a competition called "The Arnold Classic" in Ohio. Call it the "Super Bowl" of bodybuilding. It's a huge event that brings worldwide attention to Ohio, not to mention millions of dollars. Ohioans love Schwarzenegger, and in the razor thin contest in the most contested state of 2004, the help certainly did not hurt President Bush.

In the case of the Kennedy endorsements, some of it stems from the anger at Bill Clinton for running such a devisive, negative campaign against the Obama campaign, calling it a "fairytale." Party elders including Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) asked the former President to 'knock it off' but he refused. So, the Kennedy endrosements may just be political "tit-for-tat" that the general public cares little about when it comes to a voting decision. It can be great political theatre, but it doesn't pull levers in the voting booth.

One last celebrity endorsement. Pro-wrestling great Hulk Hogan is backing Barack Obama. We'll see Tuesday if that will help "wrestle" the nomincation from Sen. Hillary Clinton.

I will be out and about the next few days, covering candidate appearances around California. Tune in to www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com for the very latest!

1 comment:

yerioy said...

So happy to have found your blog. Miss you on KTVU. We do appreciate your coverage of the election.

I do think the endorsements matter, but not sure how much. I have to admit that I was impressed with Obama having Samantha Power on his team. And Ted and Caroline Kennedy endorsing got my attention.