Some Key States to Watch Tuesday!

With 20+ states holding primaries or caucuses on Super Tuesday, people have asked me, "what should I pay attention to?"

California, is the biggest, and is getting the most attention with 441 Democratic delegates up for grabs, and 173 Republican. A huge win here could give unstopable momentum, and make the nomination almost certain. A close race in California means the race for the nominations will remain "neck and neck."

Could early East Coast results sway Californians? Probably a miniscule effect, if at all. It's estimated 50% of people in the Golden State, will vote by mail or absentee.

But if there is a landslide coming this way from the East Coast, in either party, then some folks on the West Coast, might stay home. When polls close at 8pm Eastern, that's 5pm here (or 6pm Mountain time), and if people get wind of a blow out as they leave work, they may just skip voting. Keep in mind, Arizona, Alaska, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, and New Mexico, are potentially affected by East Coast projections too.

That said, keep your eyes on these states for Democrats:

Watch Georgia, where Obama leads in the polls. On the heels of South Carolina, is he more viable in the Deep South now that Edwards is gone? Watch Alabama and Tennessee, too.

Watch Illinois: Obama is a Senator here, but Hillary Clintonj grew up here. The last poll I saw had Obama 51%, Clinton 22%. If he has that big of a blowout, in such a key, big state, he remains very viable for the nomination, and has to be considered for VP, if he falls short.
Watch Connecticut: Obama and Clinton are tied in the polls here. It's her own backyard, and it should not be this close. A loss spells trouble for her.
Watch Massachusetts: Do endorsements from the Kennedy's matter anymore?

Now to the Republicans:


Watch the "Deep South" and border states: Huckabee leads in Georgia, Mississippi, Arkansas and Missouri. He is very close in Alabama. A BIG day in the South could reignite the Huckabee campaign, and make him an attractive VP choice too.

Watch the "Big Three": The polls show a commanding lead for McCain in the biggest states: California, New York and Illinois. If he wins big in all three, it will be hard to stop his nomination. If Romney makes it at least close in two of these states, he still has a shot.

Watch Delaware: Giuliani was once up here with 37%, to 15% for McCain, 13% to Thompson; to 10% for Romney and Huckabee "in the weeds." With Thompson and Giuliani now out, watch where their votes go!

I will be chasing the candidates in California on Monday, including an appearance by former President Bill Clinton in Stockton, on behalf of his wife.
Please check in often at: www.MarkCurtisMedia.blogspot.com